The midterm elections are now less than three weeks away. The consensus is now forecasting a highly unusual outcome where the Democrats pick up House seats and the Republicans pick up Senate Seats. What explains this? The House looks like the popular vote and the Senate looks like the Electoral College.
Today's topics include stocks vs. bonds, the FOMC minutes, emerging market currencies, Trump's critique of the Fed, real rates, deficits and the dollar, the Treasury's report on currency manipulators, active vs. passive investing and Leon Cooperman's comments on a bond market bubble.
With only nine days until the BEA's Q3 advanced GDP release, the Atlanta and New York Fed models have very different estimates.
Many cities across the U.S. have yet to regain their pre-crash levels in home prices.
Based on the number of pages in the Federal Register, Trump's wave of deregulation may have run its course.
Health care ETFs continue to see inflows despite the latest risk-off cycle.
Speculators held one of their largest net long positions in the post-crisis era just prior to the selloff.
Detailing every approval poll of Trump since his inauguration
Speculators continue to bet against the Australian dollar.
Moody's AAA yields since 1913
All-time highs in the discussion of the 'neutral rate' are coinciding with elevated monetary policy uncertainty. Higher U.S. Treasury yields will demand realized inflation and a continuation of favorable consumer trends.