Investors' selling of safe assets with duration between six and ten years has finally reached an extreme, potentially leading to lower U.S. 10-year yields and a recovery by rate-sensitive risk assets.
Mounting risk-off flows are adding to an already crowded mix of bearish influences for U.S. high yield.
Comparing the size of U.S. GDP to various markets
House control is still expected to go to the Democrats, but their lead is weakening. The Senate is still a lock for the Republicans.
Today's topics include the sell-off in stocks, the Fed's normalization process, Neel Kashkari speaks, Fed officials unfazed with market volatility, U.S. shale, Yellen talks Trump, the yuan continues to fall, Trump is now bad for stocks, tech stock volatility, stock buybacks slow, Fed warns banks and asset management stocks remain under pressure.
A replay of our October 25, 2018 conference call.
The Federal Reserve has become true believers in a strong U.S. economy, but equity and bond investors are pushing back given shifting risk-off flows.
Signs point to Treasury outperformance in the next phase of the longest risk-off cycle since December 2016.
Although Democrats still hold a 64% chance to take the House according to the betting markets, their lead over Republicans has begun to diminish with only twelve days to go before the midterms.
BlackRock holds over one-third of all U.S. ETF assets thanks to their wildly popular iShares product line. Their stock price has been collapsing of late. We believe this a signal that all is not well in the markets and money management business.
Today's topics include a look at the selloff, shifting to a QT state of mind, the Fed's pain threshold, money managers' race to increase AUM, renewed interest in gold, inflows into S&P ETFs and Yellen's comments on leveraged loans.