The auto sector is still struggling despite some relief on the trade front. Search interest points to weakening demand. Persistent risk-off flows and contracting financial leverage remain major risks.
Today's topics include stock buybacks, the bond market, the credit markets, Goldman likes cash, scandals at Deutsche bank, odds of a recession, bitcoin and urbanization across the world.
Tremendous hedging activity in the high yield ETF and options market is based on the assumption these instruments will provide an effective hedge over selling high yield bonds outright. If, however, the ETF, options, and credit default swaps indices start diverging from the cash bond market, trouble will follow.
Tighter financial conditions are a potential threat to growth in developed economies. The path of the U.S. dollar will be a pivotal influence as risk-off flows evolve.
As Q3 2018 earnings season comes to an end, we look ahead to Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 expectations. Without the benefit of the tax cuts, growth rates are expected to moderate. Slumping guidance further confirms the slowdown.
Today's topics include the trade war, opinions of FOMC policy, breaking up GE, rethinking central bank policy, stocks and bonds move in tandem, the corporate bond bubble, ETF fees and the cost of a Thanksgiving meal.
Neither economic data nor stock market prices are likely to change enough prior to the December 19 FOMC meeting to force the Fed to rethink its planned hike.
Worries about global oil supplies helped sustain oil prices as global demand softened. The supply premium is nearly gone after crude oil's collapse but the ride may not be over.
Fear of corporate stress and downgrades are swiftly rising, leading to a breakout in investment grade and high yield OAS. But, bankruptcy fears are low, for now.
Today's topics include the Brexit deal in crisis, the leverage loan market, more on uncertainty, why the yield curve still matters, the Fed, the slumping housing market, China's government bonds and the IRS's new method for inflation adjustments.