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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 21, 2025
Today's topics include the FOMC minutes show officials still worried about inflation, the politics behind the accusations against Lisa Cook, previewing Jackson Hole, the relationship between deficits & GDP growth, the big mac index, a dark horse for Powell's replacement?, yields on the rise, and buy the momentum dip
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 21, 2025
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 20, 2025
Today's topics include lower short rates do not guarantee lower long rates, what to look for in today's Fed minutes, a new era of fiscal dominance, the latest tariff headlines, more on Bessent's "models", foreign-born vs. native-born labor market, and stablecoins could be another source of demand for T-bills
Newsclips
Where Is the Feared Slowdown?
August 19, 2025
Through Monday, 456 companies have reported 2nd quarter earnings. At an annualized quarterly growth rate of 10.53%, the feared earnings slowdown did not materialize as expected.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 19, 2025
Today's topics include more "wait & see" at Jackson Hole?, ranking countries' inflation problems, explaining divergent retail sales & jobs data, global yields on the rise, stock market concentration, S&P sees tariff revenue offsetting fiscal problems, and companies relying on crypto Treasuries as a business model.
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 19, 2025
Conference Calls
Should the Fed Cut Rates?
August 18, 2025
Tariffs are increasingly raising prices for consumers. Slowing population growth is weakening the labor market, and rate cuts won’t solve the underlying issues. Despite market pressure, the Fed should focus on inflation and labor trends rather than short-term expectations.
Focused Research
CoT Commentary: Selling Vol Into the Rally
August 18, 2025
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 18, 2025
Today's topics include central banks only control the short end of the curve, stock market concentration, credit spreads at generational tights, Jackson Hole, overreliance on fiscal & monetary support, the odds of a September rate cut, T-bill supply & demand, Fedspeak, and bond market volatility disappears
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 18, 2025
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 15, 2025
Today's topics include more names in the ring for Fed chair, FOMC members finally debating policy, Palantir's crazy 2025 return, characteristics of an asset bubble, momentum investing still hot, margin pressure, and don't forget about small tech