Charts of the Week
LT Outlook: Real Yields Since 1800
June 5, 2019
A look at real yields since 1800
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Why Is the Bond Market Demanding the Fed Cut Rates?
June 4, 2019
The bond market sees tariffs and persistently low inflation as reasons to cut rates. The stock market is only off modestly on the belief the Fed will deliver easier policy.
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Who Is the Fed Listening To?
June 4, 2019
Our latest Bloomberg column ponders why monetary policy isn’t having the desired effect and whether the Federal Reserve may be asking for opinions from the wrong people.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
June 4, 2019
Today's topics include the U.S. economy, Drukenmiller buying Treasuries because of a Trump tweet, investors seek safe spaces, "Merger Monday", pain for FANG stocks, euro usage and Fed officials speak.
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Cartoons
June 4, 2019
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Is the Market Forcing the Fed to Cut?
June 3, 2019
The market is pricing in a 60% chance of a July 31 cut, 87% in September, and 3.5 cuts over the next year. Chairman Powell speaks tomorrow. What would be the consequences of him pushing back against a cut?
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CoT Update: Speculators Continue to Bet on a Dollar Rally
June 3, 2019
Speculators continue to hold a net short position in developed-market currencies, betting on U.S. dollar strength. They are generally long on emerging market currencies and were caught the wrong way when the Mexican peso plunged in response to Trump's tariff threats.
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Conference Call Transcript – What Should the Fed Do?
June 3, 2019
A transcript of our May 30, 2019 conference call.
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Total Return Review – Bonds Post Best Monthly Return Since January 2015
June 3, 2019
A look at total returns through May 2019.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
June 3, 2019
Today's topics include the latest in the trade war, concern over the Fed's 2% inflation target, sustainable investing, getting to know Judy Shelton, forecasting lower yields, Jens Weidmann, Federal Reserve independence, the deterioration of the leveraged loans market, lunch with Warren Buffett, challenging the idea that the market knows best and the Brexit party gains popularity in the UK.
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Cartoons
June 3, 2019
$DB weekly chart pic.twitter.com/oOCiTFIXgN — . (@StockCats_2009) May 31, 2019
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More on Inverted Yield Curves
May 31, 2019
There are many reasons to state, "this time is different" in regards to the yield curve's inversion. However, we believe the curves that includes a policy rate (3-month bills or fed funds) are sending a signal that the Fed is too tight.