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Earnings Update: A Look at Revenues
May 28, 2019
With 97% (483) of companies reporting Q1 2019 results, earnings growth is still below the inflation rate. Q2 2019 growth is expected to be negative and Q3 2019 earnings forecasts are below the inflation rate. Revenues results offer a similar picture.
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CoT Update: Is Dollar Bullishness Overdone?
May 28, 2019
Large speculators hold a net short position in developed-market currencies, betting on U.S. dollar strength. By contrast, large speculators hold a net long position in emerging-market currencies, betting on U.S. dollar weakness.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 28, 2019
Today's topics include why market expectations of a rate cut are well founded, stock buybacks, Jim Grant on negative yielding bonds, job cuts in the auto industry, bitcoin rises, Boris Johnson, muni funds are having a great year, the corporate debt market, a stock picker's market, shorting the dollar, economists try to fix their models, why bank bailouts should never happen again, why the trade war is deflationary over the long run and how inflation could return.
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Cartoons
May 28, 2019
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The Yield Curve Inverts Again
May 24, 2019
The inverted yield curve has returned, reminding us that the Fed is too tight. Will the Fed listen and cut rates?
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A Review of Earnings
May 24, 2019
We discussed earnings in a recent conference call.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 24, 2019
Today's topics include Europe's 5yr/5yr forward inflation breakeven rate is signaling a warning, more on China vs the markets, Democrats and Republicans both agree that Fed needs to change its approach to inflation, crude oil and world stocks fall in tandem, the world is enjoying an unprecedented jobs boom and opportunity zone funds.
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Cartoons
May 24, 2019
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A Review of 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts
May 23, 2019
Jim Bianco spoke about 10-year Treasury forecasts in a recent conference call.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 23, 2019
Today's topics include the debt ceiling, the price of regulation, the FOMC minutes, China's Treasury holdings, Asian imports, the odds of a prolonged trade war, the OECD sounds the alarm on global trade, the performance of U.S. stocks with large exposure to China and foreign involvement in Chinese markets.