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The ECB Has a Problem
June 10, 2019
Eurozone growth is slowing, inflation expectations are de-anchoring, the financial system is under stress and the ECB has few options.
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COT Update: Speculators Betting Against the Yield Curve Remaining Inverted
June 10, 2019
Speculators do not believe the yield curve will remain inverted for too long.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
June 10, 2019
Today's topics include rate cut talk, the 'Fed Listens' tour, billionaires against Bernie, Barron's opposing views on rates, forecasting yields, different stories being told by stock and bond markets, concentration in the asset management industry, running on Wall Street and our recent tweets of note.
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Cartoons
June 10, 2019
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Employment in Pictures – The Worst Non-Weather “Net” Jobs Report in Nine Years
June 7, 2019
Payrolls rose 75k jobs in May, but an equal number of jobs were revised away from previous months. On this "net" basis, no jobs were added with this month's release. With the exception of a Hurricane Harvey-related month, this is the worst net payroll report in almost nine years.
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A Review of the Fed’s GDP Forecasts
June 7, 2019
Jim Bianco discussed the Fed's latest GDP forecasts in a recent conference call.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
June 7, 2019
Today's topics include household net worth, more on the inverted yield curve, rate cuts, the leveraged loan market, U.S. yields, Trump vs the Fed, investors bet on bonds, CEOs worried about the trade war, tariffs on Mexico and crude oil.
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Cartoons
June 7, 2019
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Now That the Curve Is Staying Inverted…
June 6, 2019
Today will be the 10th consecutive trading day in which the 10-yr/3-mo curve has been inverted. Historically this has been an indication the the curve will stay inverted for a while. Inverted curves are a signal that FOMC policy is too tight. The cumulative damage of policy remaining too tight for longer periods of time can cause a recession.
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Measuring the Beginning of Rate Cut Campaigns
June 6, 2019
While the market continues to demand a cut, the stock market and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index are in the range where the Fed begins a rate cut cycle.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
June 6, 2019
Today's topics include why the Fed can't fix all the world's problem, stock valuations, falling crude oil, China's threat on rare earths and leveraged loans.