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September 17, 2025
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How Concentrated Might the S&P 500 Become?
September 16, 2025
The S&P 500 remains extremely concentrated relative to history. What does this mean going forward?
Financial News
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 16, 2025
Today's topics include Miran set to vote in FOMC meeting after senate confirmation, Lisa Cook also gets a vote (barring a last-minute hail Mary to supreme court), more on Fed dissents, Bullard talks about his interview for Fed chair, how much job growth is needed each month?, high valuations are not just a tech problem, foreigners hedging against the dollar, the idea of moving away from quarterly earnings, an eye on the Fed's standing repo facility, and money market funds
Humor
Cartoons
September 16, 2025
Markets
Updating Population Growth’s Impact on Labor Supply
September 15, 2025
Last week, the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of 2025 net immigration growth in the United States was revised down from 2 million to just 408,000. This has a profound impact on the labor supply in the United States and payrolls growth.
Markets
CoT Commentary: Straying Away From WTI
September 15, 2025
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.
Financial News
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 15, 2025
Today's topics include Wednesday's FOMC meeting is all about dots & dissents, FOMC expectations after this meeting, how volatile might FOMC day be?, the latest on Lisa Cook, getting to know Stephen Miran, what happens after rate cuts resume?, here we go again with ARK, gold's best year since 1979, and stock market records led to more government income in 2024
Humor
Cartoons
September 15, 2025
Financial News
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 12, 2025
Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, rate cuts after September depend on labor market, Trump attempts to block Lisa Cook from FOMC meeting, more on Bessent's claim of mission creep at the Fed, gold's rally, global fiscal issues, small caps outperform S&P 500 since end of July, and a history of the dollar
Humor
Cartoons
September 12, 2025
Markets
How Much Slack Does the US Economy Have? – Prepared Remarks Replay & Summary
September 11, 2025
An argument can be made that the labor market’s breakeven rate, an estimate of how many jobs the U.S. economy needs to create to keep up with population changes, is nearing zero. If so, cutting rates to stimulate an economy with no excess capacity risks pushing already elevated inflation higher.
Data Reports
Inflation Watch – Right at Expectations
September 11, 2025
Year-over-year inflation came in right at expectations. The CPI report has now taken a bit of a back seat to the monthly payrolls release, so today's inflation data did little to change traders' minds on the odds of future rate cuts.