Newsclips
Who Are the 2020 Leaders?
July 11, 2019
The first Democrat debate appears to have only weakened front-runner Joe Biden's prospects for nomination. According to bettors, this has improved Trump's odds of winning next year's election.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 11, 2019
Today's topics include the FOMC minutes, negative-yielding bonds, bank stocks, returns vs. valuations, minimum wage in the U.S., IPO headwinds, rare earth mineral production and the plight of low-skilled workers.
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 11, 2019
#DeutscheBank derivatives book illustrated. $DB pic.twitter.com/CqXfF2AYQC — Timo Oinonen (@oinonen_t) July 9, 2019
Newsclips
Effective Fed Funds Rate Creeping Higher Again
July 10, 2019
Later today Chair Powell will discuss the outlook for monetary policy. How the Fed actually conducts policy is unlikely to be brought up. However, the effective fed funds rate continues to creep above the target, creating more headaches for policymakers.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 10, 2019
Today's topics include Powell's testimony, the odds of a rate cut, earnings, the strong dollar, LIBOR, bank stress tests, high yield ETF flows, EU cuts growth forecasts and analyzing Fedspeak.
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Cartoons
July 10, 2019
Newsclips
The Case for a 50 Basis Point Cut
July 9, 2019
The market is still pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut. However, given the yield curve's inversion, a 50 basis point cut might make more sense.
Newsclips
Earnings Season Is About to Begin
July 9, 2019
Q2 earnings growth is expected to decline by 2.90%. Revenues are expected to grow at just 3.30%, not much above the inflation rate of 1.8%.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 9, 2019
Today's topics include ECB bond buying, negative yielding euro junk bonds, U.S. stocks, currency volatility, Libor's death, hedge fund performance, gold and Deutsche Bank.
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 9, 2019
Newsclips
Where Is the Fed After Payrolls?
July 8, 2019
The probability of a rate cut is still 100%. But the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, to a range of 1.75% - 2.00%, all but disappeared.
Newsclips
On the New Fed Nominees
July 8, 2019
We offer our thoughts on the president's latest nominations for the Fed.