Today's topics include the 60/40 portfolio, the FOMC minutes, the idea of issuing ultra long-term debt, a debate on how to respond to the next downturn, economists' poor track record in predicting recessions, reasons investors might continue buying negative-yielding debt and Vietnam as a manufacturing alternative to China.
Today's topics include the Fed's forward guidance tool, what the Fed must signal at Jackson Hole, economist Steven Ricchiuto wants the Fed to radically change its policy, shorting debt, slowing stock buybacks, Trump is considering tax cuts to save the economy, risky mortgages are making a comeback, Germany's negative yields and some competition among bond funds.
The 3m/10y yield curve has been inverted since late May and now stands at -36 basis points. Unless the Fed gets aggressive and cuts 50 basis points at the September 18 FOMC meeting, the curve will likely remain inverted.
Now that roughly 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported, Q2 2019 earnings growth has bounced back to 1.94%.
Today's topics include the Federal Reserve may have too much to do, a synchronized global slowdown, high-yield debt issuance, Japan and bank regulation.
How economists and the Fed think
Jay Powell's Jackson Hole speech this Friday has the potential to be a game-changer for the markets.
Today's topics include stimulus expectations, calling the plunge protection team, seeking safe havens, negative-yielding debt, the risk in 100-year bonds, the trade war beyond China, a tweak to China's monetary policy benchmark and the cost of uncertainty.
Why are U.S. yield plunging, the yield curve inverting and negative-yielding bonds increasing parabolically? World growth is not good.