Tariffs are increasingly raising prices for consumers. Slowing population growth is weakening the labor market, and rate cuts won’t solve the underlying issues. Despite market pressure, the Fed should focus on inflation and labor trends rather than short-term expectations.
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.
Today's topics include central banks only control the short end of the curve, stock market concentration, credit spreads at generational tights, Jackson Hole, overreliance on fiscal & monetary support, the odds of a September rate cut, T-bill supply & demand, Fedspeak, and bond market volatility disappears
Today's topics include more names in the ring for Fed chair, FOMC members finally debating policy, Palantir's crazy 2025 return, characteristics of an asset bubble, momentum investing still hot, margin pressure, and don't forget about small tech
Respondents to the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey raised their expected rate of long-term inflation 0.5% this month. That is almost unprecedented.
Bad and getting worse
Some metrics of mobility in the U.S. have yet to recapture pre-pandemic levels.
While the need for hedonic adjustments and changes to the CPI’s weights is understandable, the criticisms against them also hold some weight.
Ellison's wealth has surged in 2025 while Elon Musk's has fallen from its peak.
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.