Betting markets and polls point toward Trump getting impeached by the House, but the Senate will make his removal from office unlikely. None of this seems to be changing Trump's re-election chances.
Today's topics include the effect of uncertainty on the economy and markets, the latest on the trade war, Christine Lagarde, Libra, the latest on Brexit, an update on repo market stress, the problem with predicting a crash, reaching for yield at investment grade funds, emerging markets, online brokerages search for money-making ideas and Bill Gates regains the crown.
A replay of our October 24, 2019 conference call
American politics is more polarized than any time since the Civil War. Congress votes along party lines to the exclusion of almost everything else. This reflects the mood of the country, which is not likely to change anytime soon.
Today's topics include Dudley's thoughts on the repo situation, talking earnings and the Federal Reserve, the latest on the trade war, questioning the measurement of GDP, the 'see-whatever-you-want' economy, differing gas prices across the country, waning investment in shale oil, Draghi's legacy and the public's lack of knowledge about the bond market.
In the wake of last week's Democrat debate, Elizabeth Warren's odds are slipping while Pete Buttigieg's odds surge. Warren still leads the pack, but her quest for the nomination is heading in the wrong direction.
Today's topics include keeping up with Brexit, the markets' reaction to the potential removal of uncertainty, the Fed's holdings of T-bills, Fed liquidity, concerns in the CLO market, Jamie Dimon's take on negative rates and the growth of bond portfolio trades.
Aging populations in the developed world are growing. This is a big contributor to negative yields.
Today's topics include the yield curve's response to monetary policy expectations, a look at the ECB's self-imposed bond limits, the latest on the trade war, the Fed's term repo operation is oversubscribed, assets on the rise in 2019, gauging the odds of impeachment, banks' shaky profitability, stress in the junk bond market and the rise of odd-lot trades.