Charts of the Week
LT Outlook: The Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP
October 18, 2019
A look at the government's surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP since 1791
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 18, 2019
Today's topics include the Fed's stance on excess reserves, Chinese GDP growth hits 30-year low, the Fed floats the idea of one final rate cut, eulogizing the 60/40 portfolio, blurring the line between stocks and bonds, the strong dollar's effect on earnings and returns, Aramco postpones its IPO, the yield curve and another European official voices concern over ECB policy.
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Cartoons
October 18, 2019
Newsclips
Funding Markets Are Not Fixed
October 17, 2019
Liquidity problems in the repo market are not improving. The Fed has medicated the problem for now, but the problem has not gone away. Hopefully the $60 billion in T-bill purchases each month will help. The potential for year-end calendar liquidity issues looms on the horizon.
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TIC Update – Detailing the Largest Holders of U.S. Treasuries
October 17, 2019
Japan remains the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities for the third month running, but the Fed owns almost as much as China and Japan combined.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 17, 2019
Today's topics include a potential Brexit deal, the trade deal continues to move along, betting on negative rates in the U.S., the world's addiction to loose monetary policy, dividend-paying stocks, the trade war's effect on the corporate bond market, quantifying active managers' struggles, machine learning and Larry Kudlow's view of the 'deep state' Federal Reserve.
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Cartoons
October 17, 2019
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Will a Breakout Occur?
October 16, 2019
Markets are rallying as the uncertainties surrounding Brexit and the trade war are removed. However, they have not broken out from their recent trading ranges. If this is truly the start of a significant move, these range breaks have to occur soon.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 16, 2019
Today's topics include the zero lower bound, some pushback on the Fed's T-bill purchases, awaiting details on the trade truce, rethinking the 60/40 portfolio, an oversubscribed repo operation, China injects liquidity, banks' tackle lower net interest margins, the rising cost of homeownership and picking the right inflation measure.
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Cartoons
October 16, 2019
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What Is QE? How Will It Impact the Yield Curve?
October 15, 2019
An inverted yield curve is a market signal that the Fed is too tight and the funds rate needs to come down. When the Fed finally gets aggressive in cutting rates, the yield curve massively steepens. Will the Fed's announcement of $60 billion per month in T-bill purchases produce a similar response from the yield curve?
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What to Expect This Earnings Season
October 15, 2019
Q3 2019 earnings season begins this week. Analysts estimate S&P 500 earnings growth declined by 3.77%. Typically, as earnings season begins and companies beat artificially low estimates, this growth figure bounces almost 4%. If this historical average holds in Q3, earnings should barely eke out positive growth.