Today's topics include bank liquidity rules, business investment, timing the FOMC meeting, algos run amok, the Treasury considers 20-year and 50-year bonds, a look at ECB QE, a failed attempt at fixing ratings agencies, stock market skepticism despite all-time highs and Chinese monetary policy.
The consensus forming in the market is the Fed will cut tomorrow and signal they are done. While this seems a likely scenario, it is worth noting the market's true odds of further cuts are likely understated due to the liquidity problems in the repo market.
Yesterday the S&P 500 broke out to a new high, a bullish development. However, mid-cap and small-cap stocks, U.S. interest rates, and credit have not confirmed this move. If investors are truly signaling a recovery, these other markets should follow suit in the coming days.
Today's topics include the upcoming FOMC meeting, the effect of negative rates on pension funds, China reins in blockchain euphoria, your daily repo update, cash holdings, a look at the Iowa caucus and Chinese inflation holding back the PBOC.
At $984 billion, or 4.6% of projected Q3 2019 GDP, the U.S. reported its largest late-cycle peacetime deficit-to-GDP ratio in history. Does it matter?
Q3 2019 earnings season is now underway. Through Friday, 200 S&P 500 companies have reported results (40%). Analysts project S&P 500 earnings declined by 2.83% from a year ago. FactSet notes companies with larger foreign revenue exposure are reporting earnings growth of -9.1%, while companies with larger U.S. revenue exposure are reporting earnings growth of -0.8%.
Today's topics include a look at this week's FOMC meeting, Brexit debate gets its extension, primary dealers' role in the Fed's T-bill purchases, the ever-elusive inflation target, competition in the ETF industry, China's nod to the blockchain, the state of U.S. manufacturing, electronic bond trading, HELOCs after the housing crash, CEO confidence, a cautionary note on stocks for the long run, growth versus value and Elizabeth Warren's plan for the economy.
Jim sat down for an interview with Christoph Gisiger to talk about the markets' response to uncertainty.
Betting markets and polls point toward Trump getting impeached by the House, but the Senate will make his removal from office unlikely. None of this seems to be changing Trump's re-election chances.