The 2020 recession and financial crisis changed things. This can be seen in the inflation measures, real yields, inflation expectations, and even basic measures of the economy.
Could stablecoins actually be a big source of demand for T-bills in the next few years?
Updating the banking industry's unrealized losses and net interest margins through Q2
Stocks are still expensive, even if one avoids the Magnificent Seven.
Updating the changes in central banks' balance sheets
A long-term look at the dollar-pound exchange rate
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Today's topics include the Supreme Court will likely have to define "for cause", Brainard voices her concerns over Cook's firing, Claudia Sahm has some ideas on safeguarding Fed independence, tariffs hitting small firms worse than large firms, breaking down wage growth, the government coming for an equity stake in defense contractors?, and Japanese inflation outpaces U.S. inflation for the first time in 48 years.
Today's topics include Trump fires Lisa Cook, what does Cook's firing mean for the Fed?, the search for the next Fed chair continues, an eye on the funding markets, Williams comments on the neutral rate, AI's effect on the labor market, Wall Street is now in agreement on the rate cut, and ETFs outnumber individual stocks.
The post-pandemic labor market has undergone significant and structural changes, beginning with the widespread adoption of remote work, now extending to slowing population growth due to the shutdown of immigration. Consequently, the metrics and interpretations of the labor market have changed. The risk is that the Fed is misjudging the labor market, like they did exactly a year ago, and may ease too aggressively.