Newsclips
Employment in Pictures – Job Gains Streak Hits 111 Consecutive Months
January 10, 2020
The U.S. has now seen 111 consecutive months of payroll growth. There has not been a negative payroll number since September 2010!
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 10, 2020
Today's topics include the Sherman ratio, maybe 'not QE' actually is QE, Clarida says repo support will last through April tax season, liquidity risks in the junk bond world, new European rules will penalize trades that fail to settle, record bond fund inflows, hedge funds' woes and the rise of money-losing companies.
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Cartoons
January 10, 2020
Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay & Transcript – What Are the Biggest Risks in 2020
January 9, 2020
A replay of our January 9, 2020 conference call
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 9, 2020
Today's topics include the growth of BBB-rated bonds, the Fed's repo operations, pessimistic economists, global real rates have been heading lower for five centuries, a political update, German industrial orders' unexpected fall, gauging the market impact of the Iran situation, the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, the Baltic Dry Index falling back in line with ISM manufacturing, shadow banking, keeping up with the ETF juggernauts, Morningstar's ratings glitches, searching for the next FANGS and Tesla is on a tear.
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Cartoons
January 9, 2020
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 8, 2020
Today's topics include Talking Markets, About the Overnight Sessions, Central Bankers on Fighting the Next Recession, Earnings vs Returns, Surging Gold, Custody Banks Feel the Squeeze of Low Yields and Fees, and The Growth of Passive Investing Continues.
Newsclips
Updating the Political Landscape in 2020
January 7, 2020
As the year gets underway, the betting markets see the odds of a Trump re-election as a coin toss, while the odds of impeachment are extremely low. Biden leads for the Democrat nomination, but Sanders seems to have some momentum.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 7, 2020
Today's topics include central banks stimulus and global growth, digital currencies vs. the dollar, keep an eye on duration, avoiding a downgrade by extending maturity by decades, pushback on Bernanke's assessment of rates, gold, the transition from LIBOR to SOFR and foreign investment capital controls.
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Cartoons
January 7, 2020
Newsclips
A Yield Curve Update
January 6, 2020
An inverted curve has a simple meaning. It is a market message that the policy rate is too high. We have argued that, rather than predicting a recession, an inverted curve actually causes a recession. Every day the curve is inverted, the economy accumulates more damage. Eventually, this results in a recession.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 6, 2020
Today's topics include $50 billion in term repo rolled off today, the historical reaction to Middle East crises, the risks to a bullish outlook in 2020, updating the world of negative rates, bank failures, Bernanke speaks on the Fed's toolbox, concerns over inflation, Dudley argues for a standing repo facility and looser capital regulation, Chinese stocks lost money over the past decade, shorter trading hours in Europe?, wage growth at the top vs. the bottom, an alternate take on the world's currency reserves and the FOMC minutes.