Q4 2019 earnings season is more than 60% complete and growth estimates remain roughly 1% higher versus last year, continuing the trend of low growth the past few quarters. Perhaps more concerning, 2020 forecasts appear to be getting hit on global supply chain fears from China's coronavirus.
Using cable news coverage as a gauge of concern/interest, we find little panic over the coronavirus. This may suggest little financial market downside has been discounted.
Today's topics include the coronavirus, New Hampshire's primary is tomorrow, ESG funds, a historical look at the Fed's stress tests of banks, rare earths production, more on the BLS's benchmark payroll revisions, workers at the smallest U.S. companies, an aging workforce, the Fed's 2% inflation target, Foxconn factories, and growth vs. value.
The CBO projects the government's net interest expenses will increase over the next ten years.
An inverted curve has a simple meaning. It is a market message that the policy rate is too high.
U.S. equities have outperformed global ex-U.S. stocks by almost 11% since the beginning of 2019.
An update on muni yields and total returns since the beginning of 2019
The Fed offered two term repo operations this week with a reduced size of $30 billion. Both operations were oversubscribed.
Over $50 billion flowed into bond funds in January. The majority of this came via corporate bond funds, which saw a record inflow of almost $30 billion.
Select charts from our recent posts
A look at the unemployment rate since 1890