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Earnings Season at the Halfway Point
February 3, 2020
Q4 2019 earnings season is approaching the halfway point and growth appears to be on track for a 1% increase. This is not good. Wall Street expects Q4 2020 growth to rebound to +13% to support the big rally in stocks over the last several months.
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Iowa Caucus Is Tonight
February 3, 2020
The Iowa caucus takes place today. Sanders is the favorite among bettors while poll watchers and election forecasters see Biden as the favorite.
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Total Return Review – Bonds Off to Fast Start in 2020
February 3, 2020
30-year Treasury bonds posted one of their best January returns of the past 50 years.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 3, 2020
Today's topics include coronavirus, globalization and the markets, details on 20-year issuance on Wednesday?, housing's impact on Eurozone inflation, skepticism on phase one trade deal, core PCE, ECB bank stress tests and trading bitcoin.
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Cartoons
February 3, 2020
Newsclips
China and the Global Supply Chain
January 31, 2020
Many economists are hoping for the best and assuming any economic impact from the coronavirus will be minimal. Because of the exponential growth rate of these types of outbreaks, it is nearly impossible to asses the true economic impact until the growth rate begins to subside. Several metrics will bear watching in the coming days to gauge the potential economic fallout.
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Updating the Political Landscape as the Iowa Caucus Draws Draws Near
January 31, 2020
The process of choosing a Democrat nominee begins Monday with the Iowa caucus. The betting market thinks it is Bernie Sanders's nomination to lose. Nate Silver disagrees.
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Monthly Fund Flows – Bond Funds Post Third Largest Monthly Inflow Since 2002
January 31, 2020
Bond funds posted their third largest monthly inflow since at least 2002.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 31, 2020
Today's topics include ECB growth, the Fed vs. the bond market, sell the close buy the open?, debating bonds' value in 2020, updating the odds of Trump's acquittal, hooked on stimulus, monetary policy amidst negative rates, more on the Fed's inflation target, and using AI to catch style drift.
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Cartoons
January 31, 2020
Charts of the Week
Stocks’ Streak Without 1% Down Day Comes to End
January 31, 2020
The S&P 500's streak of consecutive days without a 1% down day came to an end on Monday.