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A Bear Market Rally
May 6, 2020
Many believe the bear market that saw the S&P 500 plunge 34% over the course of five weeks starting in late February is over and that major stock indexes will not revisit their recent lows. Don’t count on it.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 6, 2020
Today's topics include the government backstop, different measures of unemployment, shale's breakeven, making sense of stock valuations, the latest on Treasury issuance, earnings guidance (or lack thereof), savings patterns in the U.S., China may drop its GDP target, and the global supply chain's effect on stagflation.
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Cartoons
May 6, 2020
Conference Calls
The 90% Recovery
May 5, 2020
A replay of our May 7, 2020 conference call
Newsclips
Has Yield Curve Control Arrived?
May 5, 2020
How is the Treasury going to issue $3 trillion of debt over the next quarter without interest rates spiking higher? Could the answer be defacto yield curve control by the Federal Reserve?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 5, 2020
Today's topics include China's new normal, an update on round two of the PPP, hedge funds increasingly hugging the index, the Fed's ETF purchase facility is about to go live, stress testing S&P 500 companies, could the Treasury expand its list of primary dealers?, a hurdle for the ECB, housing supply/demand, and the idea of monetizing debt.
Newsclips
Cartoons
May 5, 2020
Newsclips
The 90% Recovery
May 4, 2020
A 90% recovery is a bad recession. In 2007-2009, U.S. GDP only fell about 4% from its high. Early evidence from China suggests their economy is still at roughly 90% of its pre-virus levels.
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Q1 2020 Earnings at the Halfway Point
May 4, 2020
Q1 2020 earnings are stabilizing, but quarterly forecasts through Q1 2021 continue to fall. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio continues to extend higher from a 19-year extreme. The Q2 2020 revenue forecast of -10.85% is in line with the consensus Q2 2020 GDP forecast of a -30% annualized decline.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 4, 2020
Today's topics include the Fed beat Buffett to the punch, earnings uncertainty, printing money and inflation, modeling the post-virus world, previewing Friday's jobs report, paying for all this debt down the road, oil's long-term issues, more on small business loans, and junk bond issuance.