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Tracking the Re-Opening
May 13, 2020
The areas of the country with the least evidence of an infection peak seem to be moving fastest to restart. And the evidence is the re-start, to-date, has been very slow.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 13, 2020
Today's topics include the Fed buys ETFs, retail's stock-buying mania, addressing negative rates, the new normal, gauging uncertainty, the markets vs. the economy, stock market valuations, Kocherlakota calls for aggressive yield curve control, Treasury issuance, the federal deficit, and Britain's Job Retention Scheme extended through October.
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Cartoons
May 13, 2020
Newsclips
More on the Retail Stock-Buying Mania
May 12, 2020
We believe there is little doubt the U.S. stock market is seeing a full-blown retail mania. It is possibly equal to, if not larger than, the retail mania during the peak of the tech bubble of 2000.
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Inflation Watch – The COVID Price Index
May 12, 2020
The past few months' inflation reports have largely been ignored due to the giant COVID-related asterisk attached to most figures, and rightly so. However, many of CPI's sub-indices have seen historic moves since quarantines began.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 12, 2020
Today's topics include the Fed's corporate debt ETF facility finally goes live, distorted signals from Fed bond purchases, who takes the hit from real estate's problems?, difficult choices to be made, PPP loan demand wanes, making the case for government equity stakes, pensions notch worst quarter on record, classifying different types of market crashes, and storing crude oil in swimming pools & giant blowup mattresses.
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Cartoons
May 12, 2020
Newsclips
Q1 2020 Earnings Nearing Completion
May 11, 2020
With 86% of Q1 2020 earnings now reported, earnings are expected to decline 16% compared to a year ago. Q2 2020 is expected to be one of the worst quarters ever, down 42% with estimates still falling. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio continues to extend higher from a 19-year extreme.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 11, 2020
Today's topics include the market vs. the economy, the critical assumption, Fed mouthpiece confirms no negative rates, bear market rallies, VaR on the rise, day trading crude oil, the state of value investing, initial claims, zombie companies, pushing back on the idea of inflation, diving deeper into German court ruling against ECB, and the slow death of defined benefit plans.
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Cartoons
May 11, 2020
Newsclips
Employment in Pictures – A Note on Classification Errors
May 8, 2020
As expected, this morning's payrolls report was historic by just about any measure possible.