We are heading into tech earnings week. Growth expectations have seen a sharp bounce higher as companies have beaten their bottom-line guidance. However, both guidance and analysts' revisions indicate a souring earnings outlook.
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's GDP report, this week's TBAC announcement, Goldman sees high inflation & low growth, foreign demand for U.S. assets, today's tariff headlines, checking in on sentiment, Trump's first 100 days in office, and the cardboard box indicator
The Fed needs to remained focused on their inflation mandate, even if it comes at the cost of a weaker economy.
The Commitments of Traders report allows investors to gauge position changes for different groups of traders/investors.
Today's topics include breaking down consumer spending, Warsh piles on the Fed, stocks for the long run, data collection as funding gets cut, the Fed on Treasury market liquidity, institutional traders sell while retail traders buy, soft data vs. hard data, and the cost of higher rates on the national debt
Today's topics include looking for rate cuts, South Korea seems to land first trade 'understanding' with U.S., bond vigilantes absorb influence again, hedge fund leverage & the Treasury market, wages & inflation, CEOs' ditch outlooks & signal worry, raise your hand if you want to replace Powell now, China saving face while prepping major stimulus plans, a history of U.S. tariff policy, and Trump's second first 100 days
Indirect bidders, often considered a proxy for foreign central banks, shied away from this past week's Treasury auctions.
Tariffs remitted to the Treasury General Account began to surge after Liberation Day.
As pre-Covid data rolls off the five-year window, the long-term correlation between stocks and bonds is turning higher.