For weeks we have noted prediction markets and investors are aligned with each other but are not aligned with the polling averages. This is unusual. Tonight's debate should start the process of resolving this divergence.
Today's topics include gold & real yields, the difficulty in hedging, the political aspect of central bank stimulus, where are we in the business cycle?, more on election day volatility, high debt & low growth, retail bankruptcies, and still negotiating a stimulus bill
A replay of our October 1, 2020 Conference Call
Today's topics include stocks vs. bonds, gold demand, fallen angels, university endowments' push into alternative assets, the U.S. dollar's role as a reserve currency, election uncertainty, stress in commercial properties, and measuring inflation
We have argued the rising coronavirus counts in Europe have been a big influence on US stocks' slide lately. The U.S. has not seen a similar magnitude rise yet, but the fear is the US will eventually follow Europe's path.
Today's topics include markets agree with bettors on the election, squaring claims data with unemployment data, COVID-adjusted earnings, a unique recession, Chinese bonds added to another benchmark index, junk bond outflows, concentration in European stocks, and should companies receiving PPP loans be allowed to pay dividends?
The government's cost of servicing its debt is projected to hit the lowest level since at least 1970 as interest rates hover around zero.
144A bonds now make up almost 60% of the high yield universe by face value.
Mainland Chinese valuations have run quite ahead of valuations in Hong Kong.