Focused Research
Thoughts on Debt Markets and Inflation
September 15, 2026
Charts and analysis on where debt markets and inflation stand right now
Charts and analysis on where debt markets and inflation stand right now
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on September 15, 2026
Core PCE has run above 2% for 65 straight months. The old disinflationary engine, cheap Chinese goods and an easy labor supply, has broken down and is reversing. The case for a hike holds even if no supply shock existed at all.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on September 14, 2026
Jim Bianco suggests that long-term bond yields remain elevated because the Federal Reserve has over-eased, arguing that a modest rate hike could actually calm bond markets and bring borrowing costs down.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on September 11, 2026
Treasuries have offered a far better yield than government bonds for most of the last fifteen years, but it's still not enough.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on September 10, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on September 9, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on September 8, 2026
A replay of our September 9, 2026 conference call.
Jim Bianco argues that with closed borders and near-zero population growth, the labor break-even rate has dropped to roughly 25,000–35,000 jobs per month, making a headline print around 55,000 quite solid.