Today's topics include de-escalating the trade war, escalating the trade war, the U.S. pressured the Dutch to seize control of Nexperia, Fedspeak, governments' fiscal capacity shrinks as debt grows, gold mania, who will pay for tariffs?, and when leveraged ETFs don't produce the expected results
Today's topics include stocks react to increased trade war tensions, a second trade war front for China, economic uncertainty breeds disagreement, buying a home vs. playing the stock market, deregulation, this is not the dot-com bubble 2.0, money flowing into ex-U.S. stock funds, and the cost of keeping rates artificially low
Today's topics include breakeven employment, Fedspeak, a closer look at inflation expectations, dollar shorts, reevaluating the statistical truth of recent grad unemployment, FOMO market attributes, trouble in private equity land?, revisiting a unique year in government finances, primary dealer participation hit new low, and attempting to diversify in a concentrated market
Because high- and low-income groups spend their money on slightly different baskets of goods and services, the inflation each experiences also varies.
The number of publicly traded companies in the U.S. has more than halved since the peak in 1999.
A long-term look at gold and silver on a nominal and inflation-adjusted basis. Is the massive rally part of a "dollar debasement" trade?
As reserves continue to be drained from the system, Fed officials are undoubtedly watching SOFR for signs of strain.
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.
In Q3 2025, estimated retail activity in 0DTE options made up 53% of total average 0DTE volume.
A long-term look at interest rates & CPI
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Today's topics include FOMC minutes confirm dot plots, interviews for Fed chair concluded, how to be an extreme dove in uncertain times, a deluge of t-bills incoming, lessons learned from the pandemic supply shock, pushing back on gold's rally as debasement trade, and breaking down the assets of millionaires