Today's topics include inflationary regime changes, gauging a true unemployment number, previewing Powell's presser, retail traders in Asia, the case for junk bonds, investing in the Bank of Japan, the U.S. dollar, and your daily dose of Ark
Bitcoins' volatility of late is standard fare for disruptive technologies. We would not be surprised if it has another 70% drawdown, followed by yet another new high.
Today's topics include what is driving yields higher?, Treasury market liquidity, a note on GDP nowcasts' lofty estimates, excess CAPE yield, inflation targeting, global savings, Brainard watching rise in rates, stimulus for the states, and China worries about the U.S.
If economists see little change in inflation expectations, maybe inflation is not priced into the markets to the degree many might believe.
Today's topics include this is a bubble, this is not a bubble, inflation targeting, the illusion of liquidity in corporate bond trading, higher rates help pension obligations, rare earths production, tech concentration in retirement plans, CTAs riding the trend, earnings surprises were baked into the cake, updating Ark's flows
A replay of our March 4, 2021 conference call.
The reflation (real growth)/inflation debate will continue. We still believe this will be resolved with the market pricing in higher levels of inflation later this year. The base effect rise in inflation will begin in coming months, which may offer a ready-made excuse to dismiss concerns over higher prices. The risk is not higher yields, but higher yields in a chaotic fashion, much like we saw last week.
Bonds are off to one of their worst starts to a year on record. Small cap and value stocks continue their ascent. The broad-based commodity rally has many calling for a super cycle.
Despite being extremely rich when compared to Treasuries, muni bonds continued to attract record inflows in January.