Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Roundup
February 26, 2021
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
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Do Central Banks Have a Credibility Problem?
February 25, 2021
We are not at the point that markets are rejecting central bank suppression of rates out of a fear of inflation, but we continue to inch in this direction.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 25, 2021
Today's topics include Gamestop: here we go again, quantifying stimulus checks in the stock market, comparing Coinbase to other exchanges, Dudley warns on implications of Treasury's general account surplus, Pimco not overly concerned about inflation, another day of outflows for Ark, a caveat to today's claims data, the dollar's decline, updating negative rates, a temporary outage at the Fed's transfer system, realized volatility vs. expected volatility, and the surge in global debt to GDP
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Cartoons
February 25, 2021
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Interpreting Rising Yields
February 24, 2021
In yesterday's testimony Chairman Powell tried to portray rising interest rates as a statement of confidence. Markets are mixed on this idea.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 24, 2021
Today's topics include Dudley tempers inflation concerns, a historical look at inflation, overcoming a potential taper tantrum, pushing back on the idea of pent-up demand, will the U.S. strive for a weaker dollar?, Ark funds, the rise in yields, home prices continued rising through year-end, Eurozone inflation jumps as shipping bottlenecks persist, studying the Reddit effect, and Tesla lagging the stock it replaced in the S&P 500
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Cartoons
February 24, 2021
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 23, 2021
Today's topics include central bankers' financial stability dilemma, too much of a good thing?, dissecting the rise in rates, betting on inflation, Ray Dalio's bubble gauge indicator, more on China's weaponization of rare earths, and the bullwhip effect
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Cartoons
February 23, 2021
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Q4 Earnings Update: Too Good?
February 22, 2021
The story emerging from Q4 2020 earnings reports is one of a big economic rebound. Markets have been anticipating this for months and economists are now aggressively increasing their GDP forecasts. While this is all good, those concerned about inflation on the horizon may point to this as another sign of an economy on the verge of overheating.
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The Bond Market Is Worried
February 22, 2021
Rates are moving higher amid fears booming real growth will come with more inflation. The output gap can be filled by the proposed stimulus package, allowing inflation to rise.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 22, 2021
Today's topics include framing the inflation debate, detailing the explosion in money supply, how will stimulus checks be spent?, the idiosyncratic bond market, some skepticism on the commodity super cycle, muni bonds, small cap outperformance, the truths of macroeconomics, and WTI to help set brent benchmarks in 2022