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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 18th, 2021

March 18, 2021

Twitter: Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF The share of US debt held by foreigners has fallen to its lowest level since 2002 (lhs, blue). That’s not due to foreign selling, but rather that foreigners aren’t buying (rhs, pink), even as US debt issuance has skyrocketed (rhs, black). Foreigners are on a buyer’s strike… Tweet   Peter Forbes:… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 18th, 2021

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Does Yield Curve Control Work?

March 18, 2021

Given the struggles in Australia and Japan with yield curve control, should U.S. bond short sellers be afraid of the Fed?

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Takeaways From the FOMC Meeting

March 18, 2021

Yesterday the Fed reiterated its stance on keeping rates at zero. Powell may have also let the cat out of the bag regarding an upcoming announcement on the supplemental leverage ratio.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

March 18, 2021

Today's topics include consumer spending, problems with the global supply chain, the unintended consequences of central bank purchases, dollar concerns, understanding Fedspeak, SPACs vs. short sellers, China's casino market reputation, and dip in housing starts

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Cartoons

March 18, 2021

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The Issues for Jay Powell Today

March 17, 2021

Jay Powell has two issues to address today.  Convince the market has benign inflation forecast is correct and what to do about plunging short rates. Both are going to be difficult.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

March 17, 2021

Today's topics include fretting over inflation, some perspective on Treasury losses & term premium, another wave of retail buying?, disruption brings winners & losers, stocks & the economy, banks' swelling balance sheets, bitcoin as an inflation hedge, and Cathie Wood copycats

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Cartoons

March 17, 2021

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 16th, 2021

March 16, 2021

Ben Breitholtz: Consumer spending by low-middle income households saw a large jump in vacation-related services into the end of February. Might help explain some of the out-performance across airlines as of late. The JETS ETF is up over 28% YTD.   Ben Breitholtz: Regarding market-based inflation expectations across the globe, the average 10-year inflation breakeven… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 16th, 2021

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TIC Update – Foreigners Hold Smaller Share of Treasury Market as Fed Ramps Up Purchases

March 16, 2021

Although foreigners have added to their Treasury holdings since the pandemic started, they now own a smaller share of the market thanks to the Fed's massive purchases.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

March 16, 2021

Today's topics include things to watch for at tomorrow's Fed meeting, Treasury selloff spreads, ARK again, a dovish Fed, US small businesses, fueling the stimulus-driven market rally, pulling money out of China, millions spent on crypto art and NFTs, the economic gap, oil rally's effects, and young people & dismal returns

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Cartoons

March 16, 2021