Today's topics include bets on a hawkish Fed, 'crowding out' risk, Fed warnings, your daily dose of crypto news, LIBOR replacement?, new short bets on junk bonds, Dr. Copper record high, betting against Germany's recovery, and eviction moratorium back in place
Jim Bianco: No peak yet.India is now over 50% of the cases worldwide. Jim Bianco: Cable Business News is talking a lot more about inflation.But general cable news has barely noticed. Ben Breitholtz: This chart of rolling one-year Sharpe ratios show just how impressive the rally in US 5-year inflation expectations (TIPS breakevens) has been!… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – May 6th, 2021
Today's topics include the moratorium on evictions & inflation, a labor shortage?, betting on a slowly declining dollar, more on Yellen's rate hike comments, easy financial conditions, time to start thinking about the debt ceiling again, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee weighs in on issuance, ARK outflows, and crypto trading volumes
Jim Bianco: *LUMBER FUTURES EXTEND RECORD RALLY TO TOP $1,500 FOR FIRST TIME Ben Breitholtz: Another perspective using labor-related search activity shows job seeking and hopes for the return to workplaces ratcheting higher since mid-March. Quick model using this data places NFPs for April between 828k and 1262k. Twitter: Daniel Zhao @DanielBZhao Updating w/ 2 more… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – May 5th, 2021
All signs point to inflation going significantly higher over the short term. Will this burst prove to be more than transitory? This is arguably the most important macro question of the year.
Today's topics include more stories of supply crunches & price hikes, Yellen walks back her rate hike comments, equity risk premium, holding off bankruptcies, running the numbers on Biden's proposed tax plan, and hedge funds selling stocks
Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders Commodities continuing to rally … now with > 50% of @OECD economies in growth mode, strength in commodities starting to resemble paths seen in late/early 1970s, 1998, 2003 & 2009 @DataArbor @Bloomberg Jim Bianco: *CORN HITS $7 A BUSHEL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2013 ON SUPPLY WORRY Another commodity chart… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – May 4th, 2021
The signs of inflation rising beyond a base effect are unmistakable.
Today's topics include corporations continue to raise cash, banks look to offload deposits, productivity on the rise, high valuations, SPACs, taxes' effect on fund flows, bankruptcies in Europe, and bitcoin vs. ether