We continue to believe the pandemic caused a secular shift toward work-from-home. The old models of how the labor force reacts to pay and working conditions have changed. This will lead to more "persistent" inflation.
Today's topics include the New York Fed suspends its nowcast model, rents & inflation, stagflation, the Fed's difficult timing task, quantifying supply chain issues, more on the labor market, should CAPE be adjusted for tax rates?, back to office thoughts, and bitcoin's big day in El Salvador
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss the Federal Reserve, Labor Market and the Delta Variant Ben Breitholtz: As foretold, the gap between US and German 10-year inflation breakevens is closing with recent range lows giving way. Investors pricing in a new floor for eurozone headline inflation at 1.5% YoY is a big deal. On our… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 3rd, 2021
August's payroll report was 498k jobs short of expectations. This ranks as the third largest downside miss on record.
To get a clearer picture of the slowdown in mobility, a deep dive into the data is necessary. Distinguishing between seasonal factors, Hurricane Ida, and the delta variant is a difficult task.
Today's topics include Q3 slowdown, Latin American inflation, food problems will keep coming, peaking profitability?, half of U.S. small businesses can't fill jobs, new supply chain models, housing market and mobility, and probing Uniswap
Dealers and brokers used to be the largest participants in Treasury note and bond auctions, but they have given way to investment funds over the last decade.
Minutes from the July FOMC meeting suggested the Fed stands ready to raise the $80 billion per counterparty limit on its reverse repo facility.
As another earnings season comes to a close, companies have once again successfully beat analysts' expectations.
After the SEC suggested SPAC warrants should be considered liabilities instead of equity, SPAC activity came to a screeching halt.