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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 21st, 2021

September 21, 2021

Jim Bianco: Bloomberg has a weekly consumer confidence report that breaks it down by self-described political alignment. As this chart shows, political alignment might be the strongest of all traits in determining consumer confidence (see the bottom panel and note how it gets stronger over time).So, consumer confidence surveys are merely asking one which political… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 21st, 2021

Newsclips

Will September Payrolls Disappoint? – Update

September 21, 2021

The week of September 13 was the BLS's payroll survey week, which will produce a critical metric for the Fed's taper decision. Similar to last week, we check in with COVID and Hurricane Ida to understand if another disappointing payroll report is on the table, further stalling the Fed's tapering plans.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

September 21, 2021

Today's topics include the Fed's dot dilemma, looking for hints on the PBOC's response to Evergrande, checking in on small businesses, the OECD raises its inflation projections, buy the dip?, companies talkin' inflation, banks' trading revenue, Lael Brainard's future, and Evergrande's effect on stablecoins?

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Cartoons

September 21, 2021

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 20th, 2021

September 20, 2021

Jim Bianco: The story that will not go away for the Fed gets worse and worse. Now Powell is involved. CNBC: Fed Chief Powell, other officials owned securities central bank bought during Covid pandemic Steve Liesman – Amid an outcry about Federal Reserve officials owning and trading individual securities, an in-depth look by CNBC at… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 20th, 2021

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Sticker Shock

September 20, 2021

Car prices are soaring again as demand for cars meets limited supply. The transitory CPI component of car prices could be poised to turn higher.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

September 20, 2021

Today's topics include market talk, is the debt ceiling now an issue?, fiscal vs. monetary support, Evergrande's problems, defining 'transitory', Reinhart & Rogoff return, earnings warnings, and the fallout from European energy problems

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Cartoons

September 20, 2021

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 17th, 2021

September 17, 2021

Jim Bianco: Bloomberg: Fed Seen Announcing Bond Taper in November, Rate Liftoff in 2023 Steve Matthews and Kyungjin Yoo – The Federal Reserve will probably hint at its meeting next week that it is moving toward scaling back monthly asset purchases and make a formal announcement in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 17th, 2021

Newsclips

Biden’s Agenda

September 17, 2021

Biden's approval rating is down a lot. Is his spending and stimulus agenda now at risk?

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Newsclips

TIC Update – Foreign Treasury Holdings Hit Record $7.5 Trillion

September 17, 2021

Japan and China accounted for roughly 80% of the increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries in July.

Newsclips

Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

September 17, 2021

Today's topics include another look at Fed officials' trading habits, are we wrong on inflation?, using complex language to hide bad results?, gas shortage continues, on the taper timeline, working with European inflation, and stablecoin crackdown