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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 13th, 2021

October 13, 2021

If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Financial Times: US bank chiefs confident supply chain disruptions are ‘transitory’ Imani Moise and James Politi – The widespread supply chain disruptions plaguing manufacturers and retailers across the world will probably work themselves out over the next few months, chief executives… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 13th, 2021

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Inflation Watch – “Persistent” Inflation Moves Higher

October 13, 2021

Inflation components can be broken into the broad categories of reopening and non-reopening as well as cyclical and acyclical. Reopening and cyclical components, such as airlines tickets and rental cars, are receding, as widely predicted. However, the more persistent non-reopening and acyclical components continue to trend higher. This is a problem for the transitory inflation narrative.

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Updating the Trend in COVID Cases

October 13, 2021

The recent trends in COVID cases are both encouraging and highlight the confusion about why cases go up and down. This matters a lot for economic growth projections.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

October 13, 2021

Today's topics include IMF trims 2021 global growth projections, Clarida affirms November taper and end to purchases in mid-2022, the PBOC's liquidity injections, Bostic sees persistent inflation, the latest on the supply chain, earnings as a market-timing tool, the 60/40 portfolio's problem, and potential index entrants currying favor with s&p global?

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Cartoons

October 13, 2021

Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 12th, 2021

October 12, 2021

If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Jim Bianco briefly joins “Kudlow” to discuss the Jobs Report, Fed Taper and Powell’s Renomination Jim Bianco: Ben Breitholtz: NFIB small business survey getting interesting again… Cost of labor as the single most important problem has risen to the highest on… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 12th, 2021

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The Troubled Prospects for Banks

October 12, 2021

Decades of poor performance are a loud and definitive market signal that banks have not been a good place for capital. Now with FinTech and Decentralized Finance coming, we do not see their long-term prospects as anything but troubled.

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What Does Southwest Tell Us About Employment?

October 12, 2021

Sitting at home for a year has changed attitudes about work. This is having a significant impact on the economy. So far, quantifying this has been all but impossible. But 2019 is not returning and Wall Street needs to stop calling for a return to "normal" and start understanding why this is happening.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

October 12, 2021

Today's topics include the transitory vs. persistent debate, the taper is all systems go in November, lowered expectations for china's q3 GDP, a tight jobs market, the BOE turns more hawkish, quantifying the return to the office, beating the holiday retail crush, stock buybacks, and don't billionaires have better ways to spend their time?

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Cartoons

October 12, 2021

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Q3 Earnings Update: And We’re Off

October 11, 2021

As Q3 earnings season kicks into gear, we check in with earnings estimates. Aggressive earnings forecasts in the first two quarters of 2021 still proved to be too low. This has helped support stock prices and their lofty valuations. Can company earnings surprise to the upside again?

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

October 11, 2021

Today's topics include Chinese developers try to skirt default, update on European energy crisis, mutual fund era ends, oil continues the climb, are we already in a recession?, creating a new economy, and crypto FOMO