Humor
Cartoons
December 17, 2025
The birth-death model is likely overstating job creation, leading Powell to suggest payrolls might actually be contracting by 20k jobs per month since March.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 16, 2025
A replay of our conference call discussing the Fed's balancing of the dual mandate.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 15, 2025
Economists have viewed lower monthly payrolls growth as a significant negative for the economy. Other indicators reject this and if you account for declining population growth, the labor market might actually be balanced.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 12, 2025
The Fed's losses seem to be slowing, but they have a huge hole to dig out of before they pay off all their IOUs to the Treasury.
T-bill issuance is higher on both a gross and net basis, but examining the data on a gross issuance exaggerates the trend.