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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 24th, 2021

November 24, 2021

Ben Breitholtz: Given liquidity issues and active central banks, currency tail risk is on the move as we expected! Colleague: So how does one play that tail risk Ben? Ben Breitholtz: Like we suggested, purest is 10 or 25 delta butterfly options on currencies like EUR, GBP, AUD, etc. It’s going to become increasingly difficult… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 24th, 2021

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Liquidity Problems Appearing in the Bond Market

November 24, 2021

Volatility and liquidity measures in bond markets, especially in the front end of the yield curve, have turned significantly worse in the last few months. At the same time, the dollar has soared and the market is nearly pricing in a May rate hike.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

November 24, 2021

Today's topics include how well do central banks understand inflation?, little demand for the 20-year bond, Germany threatens lockdown, factor investing, asset managers' effect on ETF flows, single 8-year terms for Fed chair?, the growth of venture capital, quantifying supply shortages, more on the release of strategic crude reserves, and U.S. regulators share crypto roadmap

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Cartoons

November 24, 2021

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 23rd, 2021

November 23, 2021

Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Cryptocurrencies with Charles Payne Jim Bianco: There is a market that look like the short-rates, the dollar. Here is the 2-year note and Dollar Index charts side-by-side. For those that think the move higher in short-rates is wrong, the dollar does not think this is the case. The… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 23rd, 2021

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Stocks & Fed Hikes in 2022

November 23, 2021

Short rates are moving higher on the belief the Fed has to get aggressive next year. If this happens because of persistent inflation, the Fed is in a tough spot. They would have to pick one market to help. They cannot help both.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

November 23, 2021

Today's topics include the long-term drivers of yields, hedge funds long profitless tech companies, the jobs market, tapping the strategic petroleum reserve, filling the other FOMC jobs, a comprehensive review of supply chain issues, and SPACs

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Cartoons

November 23, 2021

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 22nd, 2021

November 22, 2021

Jim Bianco: *U.S. POISED TO RELEASE OIL FROM RESERVE WITH OTHER NATIONS See the rectangle … how does this differ from what they have been doing? Jim Bianco: The market has three rate hikes priced in for 2022. A June hike is 79% A second September rate hike is 69% A third rate hike in… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 22nd, 2021

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The Market Gets Even More Aggressive on Rate Hikes

November 22, 2021

The market is pricing in a very aggressive Fed in 2022, complete with a sped up taper and three hikes. Economists and Fed officials remain more dovish, representing a real disconnect with the markets.

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Newsclips

Q3 Earnings Update: Another Season in the Books

November 22, 2021

475 companies have reported earnings with a beat rate of 82%. While slightly below previous quarters, this is still quite high historically. Q3 2021 earnings growth continues to be above 40%.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

November 22, 2021

Today's topics include Powell gets reappointed, it's all about liquidity, the kink in the T-bill curve, inflation, rising car prices, how broad is this rally?, global debt, the supply chain, pensions reduce cash on hand, and crypto miners' exodus from China