The two-year Treasury note is on track to finish the year with a negative total return, a feat that hasn't occurred since data began being collected in 1973.
Today's topics include facing the debt ceiling, majors & repaying college debt, ECB hits the pause button, OECD forecasting & omicron, El-Erian on Powell's comments, more on hiding the supply chain problem, and can Ether flip Bitcoin?
Colleague: Client asking re your view expressed yesterday re inflation …wouldn’t a fall in oil from lockdowns be disinflationary? Jim Bianco: Oil would fall, but I don’t think core inflation falls unless you’re predicting a recession. If it gets that bad, we’re mailing checks again. That keeps demand up. By now most recognize that we… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 30th, 2021
Despite statements to the contrary, the supply chain is not getting better. The case could be made that it is the worst it has ever been now. Recent changes in shipping data appear to be designed to hide the problem, not alleviate it.
Index funds have accounted for an increasingly larger portion of ETF and mutual funds' assets under management over the past decade.
Today's topics include Moderna CEO comments on omicron, volatility & omicron, carbon bubble bets, keep an eye on the T-bill curve, carry trade returns, supply chain probe, gas prices cause pain, widest profit margins since 1950, and crypto whales
The Roundtable Insight – Jim Bianco and Yra Harris and Roundtable Jim Bianco: On Friday we had a big sell off on virus news (down 2.3%). Does this remind you of anything???? Jim Bianco: Yes, we learned from the last two years, like travel bans do not work, and will not re-run the same playbook… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – November 29th, 2021
A replay of our December 2, 2021 conference call.
Before omicron, inflation was the biggest threat to the economy. Overstimulation pushed demand to records and the supply chain couldn't keep up. Additionally, the Great Resignation added to supply problems. Omicron could exaggerate this imbalance rather than reverse it.
Today's topics include Friday's flight to safety, margin borrowing, exposure to China & the U.S., the transitory debate, IPOs struggled in 2021, work conditions, and betting on the dogs of the Dow