January proved to be one of the more volatile months in quite a while. Stocks and bonds suffered as inflation heated up, but commodities had one of their best months on record.
Today's topics include the meme stock scene waits for action, consumer sentiment, maybe the Fed can print ships!, natural gas ships waiting in line, rents continue to rise, supply chains continue to struggle, the Fed has to walk the tight rope in 2022, plotting the recent selloff against the past, and options trading on the move again
Jim Bianco: Remember the market has five hikes priced in. So this contest of one upping each other on rate hikes is really a race to agree with market pricing. Twitter: Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV 2022 Fed hike guesses MS: 4 DB: 5 GS: 5 Citi: 5 JPM: 5 Tweet Here is the state of Fed policy… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – January 31st, 2022
The yield curve's flattening is a sign of growing concern that the Fed is going to hike too much and break something. The curve is not inverted, which would signal the market believes things are already breaking, but it is rapidly moving toward that level.
Q4 2021 earnings season is underway with 168 (34%) S&P500 companies already reporting results. Earnings growth is expected to be 23.65%.
Today's topics include inflation & yields, volatility to stick around, making the decision to not make a decision, Russian tensions make the European energy crisis more concerning, wealth fund sounds the persistent inflation alarm, Nasdaq set for the worst opening month ever, the new multi-strategy paradigm, winding down MBS purchases proving painful, and IMF concerned over crypto in emerging markets
The Fed is intent on addressing inflation, which may require putting asset markets under stress. Wall Street and investors are not yet convinced the Fed will get aggressive. This game of chicken is the story of 2022.
Despite Wall Street's proclamations, there are still few signs the supply chain is getting better. Now Fed Chair Jay Powell agrees.
Today's topics include more on yesterday's GDP release, this tightening cycle is different, why do stocks rally overnight?, BofA sees no sign of capitulation yet, the VIX's streak, watch for liquidity holes, dwindling car production, stock allocations for retirees, mysterious ETF inflows, and crypto's correlation to risk assets