Charts of the Week
Pricing the Odds of Rate Hikes
February 25, 2022
The market currently expects seven hikes by the end of 2022, with 100 basis points worth of hikes expected in the next three meetings.
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Stablecoins Update Their Reserves
February 25, 2022
Stablecoins like Tether and USDC will have to be as transparent as possible moving forward to satisfy regulators. Their attestations have become increasingly explicit over the past year, something which must continue if they hope to remain the backbone of decentralized finance.
Charts of the Week
Central Banks’ Balance Sheets Still Growing
February 25, 2022
Updating the growth in central bank balance sheets
Charts of the Week
A Long-Term Look at 10-Year Treasury Yields
February 25, 2022
A long-term look at 10-year Treasury yields
Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Roundup
February 25, 2022
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Media & Communications
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 24th, 2022
February 24, 2022
Jim Bianco: Latest drawdown charts. The most worrisome part, to me, is interest rates are not giving an inch. In fact the 2-year finished about 1.60%. Zero flight to quality after this big decline. My takeaway, this is about inflation. It is a real problem and needs to be dealt with, and if that means… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 24th, 2022
Newsclips
The Fed Has No Choice – Ukraine Edition
February 24, 2022
For the time being, Putin appears to have no interest in backing down. This puts central banks in an even worse spot than before. Growth will likely take a hit, but inflation will also remain elevated. We believe the Fed will attempt to tame inflation first, worrying about slow growth later.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 24, 2022
Today's topics include crude oil tops $100, real yields' historic slide, Russia's role as commodities supplier, China's role in sanctions, a stagflationary shock, financial conditions, trading the lumber market, and SPACs struggling to find deals
Newsclips
Cartoons
February 24, 2022
Media & Communications
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 23rd, 2022
February 23, 2022
Jim Bianco: The 10:1 ratio of this tweet should stand as evidence of how important, and how angry, the public is about inflation. Jim Bianco: Manheim: Wholesale Vehicle Prices Decline in First Half of February Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices saw accelerating declines through the first two weeks of February. The latest trends in the… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 23rd, 2022
Newsclips
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten
February 23, 2022
The yield curve's flattening is a sign of growing concern that the Fed is going to hike too much and break something. The curve is not yet inverted, which would signal the market believes things are already breaking, but it continues to move toward that level.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 23, 2022
Today's topics include IMF bangs the QT drum, more on wages, backwardation's tailwinds, Russian holdings of U.S. debt, money supply, hedge funds reduce tech exposure, retail crowd loses interest in penny stocks, and slow & steady stock market millionaires