Today's topics include retail vs. hedge fund flows, accounting for inflation in historical gas price comparisons, El-Erian on the buy-the-dip mentality, more on the strains in energy markets, nickel's giant short squeeze, the housing market remains hot, the return to the office, stagflation concerns rising, tech wreck, and Yellen on Biden's crypto executive order
The Fed waited too long to normalize, leaving them with few options. Hiking aggressively to stop inflation and risking a recession/bear market causes less pain than staying too easy in an inflationary environment to protect growth.
Today's topics include Pozsar offers further thoughts on funding stress, the consequences of weaponizing the financial system, a massive battle in the nickel market, wheat market gets volatile, PCE vs. CPI, looking for signs of recession, Shell adopts the "better to ask forgiveness than permission" mantra, stock ratings remain bullish, releasing more oil, and hedge funds' tech bets
Jim Bianco: I still think US stocks are trading on the hope of a red headline that says some variation of “Putin is dead/out” or “ceasefire.” Hope is not a strategy and the reality is this gets worse before better. I’ve said that when global markets/global economy turn the US stock market is the “slow… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 7th, 2022
Not only are commodity prices soaring, but they are also trading with record backwardation, signifying critically low inventories are squeezing prices higher.
In the last two weeks, Jim talk about decentralized finance and its future on two different podcasts.
Today's topics include European natural gas prices continue higher, discounted Russian oil, an alternate take on crude oil's surge as a sign of recession, prices at the pump, rising mortgage payments, forecasting inflation, stagflation risks, bearish on the euro, the technicalities of Russian bond payments, Kocherlakota on empty FOMC seats, and pensions' stock allocations
Payrolls beat almost all estimates in February, thanks in large part to the addition of a large number of low-paying service jobs.
Today's topics include measuring stress in funding markets, the relentless commodity rally, more Fedspeak, rising gas prices, the Russian economy, wage growth in the US, consumption & spending in a slowing China, ARK & Cathie Wood, and EU wants to avoid future energy issues