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Where Are Valuations and How Did We Get Here?
March 24, 2022
There is no doubt valuations are stretched and have been for some time. In a low-rate, strong-growth environment, this is not an issue. However, as we enter a period of higher rates, continuing war in eastern Europe, and record inflation prints, valuations look more problematic.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 24, 2022
Today's topics include the wealth effect is working against the Fed's inflation fight, the Fed hopes for a soft landing, interpreting yield curves, how will the housing market react to higher rates?, deglobalization, combating food inflation, port congestion, the omicron ba.2 variant, and Powell on a CBDC
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Cartoons
March 24, 2022
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Interpreting Different Yield Curves
March 23, 2022
The markets are concerned the Fed will get too aggressive in its rate hikes and break something.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 23, 2022
Today's topics include more on bonds' rough stretch, stocks vs. bonds, is gas stimulus coming?, no bailout for commodity traders, El-Erian on stagflation, the great resignation, inflation becoming more widespread in the UK, prices at the pump, another shortage in Europe, and Morgan Stanley takes aim at DeFi
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Cartoons
March 23, 2022
Media & Communications
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 22nd, 2022
March 22, 2022
Bianco Research Conference Call: Why Do We Have Inflation? Thursday, March 24, at 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT and 14:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a client webinar/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. So much of office culture is structured around 150+ million people… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 22nd, 2022
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How Dysfunctional Are Commodities Markets?
March 22, 2022
Over the last several weeks dysfunctional commodities markets have left the large commodities trading houses scrambling to raise more capital and calling for central bank bailouts. This led to mass liquidation and a collapse in prices. As this dysfunction clears, commodities markets are left historically tight, suggesting supply is far short of meeting demand. This means the price uptrends should reassert themselves soon.
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Markets and World Wars
March 22, 2022
Last week's rally in stocks bears some similarities to September/October 1939. If this overlay holds, stocks could be in for a painful period. During both World Wars inflation outpaced stock returns. The S&P 500 has already lagged CPI over the past year.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 22, 2022
Today's topics include could this time be different for a yield curve inversion?, Powell green-lights the idea of a 50 basis point hike, the choice between recession & inflation, the bond market's bad month, rising rates & government finances, the risks posed by bond ETFs, tighter financial conditions, steel prices surge, and central banks build digital currency platform