Today's topics include chairman Timiraos calls for 75 basis point hike, the bond market's tantrum, the curve inverts again, Bernanke chimes in on inflation, the hawks' day in the sun, more on the odds of a recession, and vanishing crypto fortunes
Going into Friday's CPI release, we noted 33% to 40% of the investment community still believed inflation was transitory. In other words, inflation's potential to drag down risk markets was not fully priced in. Friday's CPI killed the transitory hope and we are now seeing the effects of the remaining believers capitulating as a result.
Today's topics include rate hike expectations, how will unemployment rate respond to more hawkish fed?, talking about recession, more signs of broadening inflation, the yen's slide continues, crude's supply/demand imbalance, bonds yields getting more attractive vs. dividends, and signs of a slowdown in housing
CPI came in much hotter than expected in May. Most concerning is the rapid increase in OER and RPR.
Today's topics include generations on work-from-home, sympathy for the Fed, higher oil prices coming, betting against the pound, the current risk rally, El-Erian warns we aren't at the peak yet, tracking online goods inflation, gas prices are causing problems, checking on retailers' inventory, and stagnating growth in UK
Friday's CPI release prompted traders to begin pricing in a 75 basis point hike at either the July or September meeting.
If current methodologies and weights were applied historically to CPI, current growth rates would be much closer to the all-time highs set in 1980.
Long-term commodity investors have profited from backwardation over the past year, adding to total returns to a degree rarely seen.
First-time homebuyers enjoyed a relatively affordable market in the decade following the housing crash. The recent rise in prices and mortgage rates has brought that to an end.