Today's topics include on inflation & crypto, no big surprises from the FOMC minutes, payroll preview - is good news bad news?, signs of a cooling rental market, the effects of pandemic stimulus for those in poverty, how does a 60/40 portfolio perform in different inflation regimes?, oil & recession, higher U.S. power costs feeding through industrials, metals' slide, and low liquidity lunchtime rallies.
Forward curves tell us what is priced in and what is expected. But, they do not tell us what may actually happen.
Today's topics include the Fed's battle to control inflation expectations, the Japanese yen, yield curve inversion...again, measuring economic misery, earnings estimates for 2023 remain high, a revival of U.S. manufacturing?, the parallels between 1990s internet and web3, and Bridgewater profits on volatile year.
Until the Fed gives some indication that inflation is not a priority, growth will slow, a recession is very much a possibility, and the Fed will remain aggressive in hiking rates.
Today's topics include bonds worry while stocks yawn, negative real fed funds, checking in on recession odds, consumers dip into savings, earnings & stocks, dollar/euro parity draws near, El-Erian finds the silver lining to the markets, differing opinions on crude oil, European electricity prices hit new highs, and housing slows down.
The losses in the stock and bond markets in the first six months of the year have rarely been matched on a historical basis. Commodities have been one of the only assets to offer positive returns this year.
Today's topics include falling rates vs. fed funds, soft landing seems unlikely, further downside risk, hoping for growth, Eurozone inflation record, gas exports to Europe, corporate raises fall, and Treasury market reform
Client Question for team Bianco: What is Arbor’s view on fed funds rate vs. The 2yrs given that the expected terminal rate is between 3 and 4%… In other words, how high will the 2yr go? Jim Bianco: First the terminal rate. The latest Fed dots, from June 15, had it at 3.75% (2023 plot).… Continue reading How high will the 2yr go?