Today's topics include everyone has an opinion on Fed policy, markets expect rate cuts in 2023, move along...no recession to see here, the strong dollar's effect on earnings, the middle class squeeze, globalization lives on, the ECB's transmission protection instrument, the 60/40 portfolio, more signs of strain in European energy markets, and it pays to switch jobs
Economists continue to forecast the Fed will back off on its aggressive rate-hiking campaign. Underlying this belief is a view that the world has not changed post-pandemic. However, we now live in a world of supply challenges. Pumping up demand, as these economists want, will make things worse.
The S&P 500 recently fell into bear market territory before staging a rally in the past two weeks. Valuations have come down significantly from the peak, yet a likely U.S. recession throws into question if earnings can justify valuations.
Today's topics include housing market, the ECB's transmission protection instrument, European business activity contracts, the rising dollar's global effect, the Fed put, the big mac index, stock market sentiment, and crypto as a security
A Bloomberg survey still puts the odds of a recession over the following year under 50%.
Economists are skeptical about a nearing recession in the U.S. Even with the strength of the labor market adding confusion to the debate, a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth and the bear market in stocks are typically signs a recession is underway.
Despite prices plunging over 50% at the low in 2022, Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation Fund has seen YTD inflows.
Republicans are still favored to sweep the midterm election, but the race is getting closer.
How big are the Fed's holdings of bonds, notes, bills, TIPS, MBS, agencies, and FRNs in relation the outstanding market?
Circle recently increased the transparency of the reserves behind the second largest stablecoin, USDC.