Today's topics include the supply chain is not getting better, are we in a recession?, retiring with target date funds, remote work & tough company outlooks, gas prices, hedge funds bearing the blame for losses, and bringing CBDC's back into focus
The high yield market, and we would argue the larger credit markets, have had two cycles over the past decade - buy and hedge. Right now we are in a hedging cycle. Persistent inflation and QT could initiate the first selling cycle in a long time.
Today's topics include Fed cycles & market bottoms, Zoltan on a US recession, Chinese housing bust hits metals, liquidity drying up in China, labor shortages, supply chains stay strained, peak bearishness, a tale of two markets, housing boom slows, and estimating labor market growth
While many major asset classes back off record returns on the year as bonds rally and commodities cool off, returns continue to stay at historical extremes.
With Q2 2022 earnings season underway, revenue and earnings growth expectations for Q2 continue to surprise yet expectations for future growth are crashing as uncertainties around the economy grow.
Today's topics include is the belief that inflation is transitory dead?, are we in a recession?, bond market chaos, ignoring the macro environment, on the recent rally, rents back off, market rally faces an august test, venture capital is on the way down, office real estate, and crypto follows watch for the "flippening"
Many have called June the peak in yields. Yet, as yields soared this year, flows did not indicate capitulation. As the bond market continues to rally since mid-June, inflows have come in strong.
Bonds mutual funds and ETFs saw net outflows of $57 billion in June despite government bond funds seeing inflows.
Today's topics include talkin' recession, more on the recession debate, forecasting failures, the markets hear what they want to hear, Europe's energy crisis, charting the Fed's rate hike campaign, the broken pension system, Chinese GDP, and has the shipping logjam simply moved to different areas?