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Inflation Forecasting Errors
August 9, 2022
Both the Cleveland Federal Reserve's CPI Nowcast and the median Wall Street CPI estimate have proven too low in 17 of the last 18 months. Such a consistent one-sided forecasting error suggests a change in the economy is not being accounted for, meaning inflation might be more persistent than most believe.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 9, 2022
Today's topics include talkin' inflation, is this time different for the yield curve?, El-Erian on US economy, a shortage of workers, wage growth keeping inflation higher, housing sentiment continues to deteriorate, don't expect help from the Fed, pension funds struggling in 2022, Europe's dormant bond market, and U.S. Treasury sanctions crypto privacy protocol
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Cartoons
August 9, 2022
Me and the boys getting ready to completely misrepresent and fumble the CPI data to FOMO trade cryptographically secured assets on leverage pic.twitter.com/jptbHbWBzp — wawin (@wawin) July 13, 2022
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Where Is Inflation Going?
August 8, 2022
While the word 'transitory' has been stricken from economic playbooks, risk markets are still hoping inflation data will allow the Fed to wind down rate hikes in the near future. Is this wishful thinking?
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Q2 Earnings Update – Company Guidance Moves Positive Again
August 8, 2022
With Q2 2022 earnings season underway, revenue and earnings growth expectations continue to surprise. Expectations for future growth are crashing, yet companies are offering more positive guidance than in previous weeks even as economic headwinds grow.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 8, 2022
Today's topics include updating inflation's outlook, taking the temperature for future rate hikes, can stocks rally while profit margins contract?, rising revenues despite dwindling sales volume, the ECB's bond reinvestments, stocks vs. bonds, corporate bond ETF flows, and a stablecoin is only as good as its underlying collateral
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Cartoons
August 8, 2022
Media & Communications
Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast Update
August 5, 2022
July CPI MoM 63 Est 0.2% Median 0.3% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 0.0% to 0.4% Range July CPI YoY 44 Est 8.7% Median 8.8% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 8.5% to 8.9% Range July Core CPI MoM 63 Est 0.5% Median 0.5% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 0.4% to 0.7% Range July Core CPI YoY 43 Est 6.1% Median 6.05%… Continue reading Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast Update
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Employment in Pictures – Pandemic Job Losses Fully Restored
August 5, 2022
The labor market added 528k jobs in July, which means all the jobs lost during the pandemic have now been restored. Solid employment news continues to give the Fed the green light to hike, which is obviously bad for risk markets, but the inflation reports remain in the driver's seat in determining FOMC policy.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 5, 2022
Today's topics include justifying rate hikes, breaking down jobs data for the likelihood of a soft landing, has the Fed brought guidance back already?, again on the COVID supply chain, tracking "recession" searches, taking air out of housing, economists need a reality check, Burry says market is still "silly", BofA says no-go on stocks, managers missed the rally, the future of retail, and looking at crypto
Charts of the Week
The Fed’s P&L Statement
August 5, 2022
The Fed operated profitably as rates remained subdued. With rates now rising, the math quickly begins to work against them.