Today's topics include deflating the prospects of a December cut, is it bad if Powell is losing control of the Fed?, U.S. & China strike a fragile truce for now, where should rates be?, understanding Fedspeak, updating liquidity concerns, and central bank gold demand
Today's topics include banks tap SRF for over $10b this morning, will the Fed reduce the SRF rate by more than 25 basis points?, cutting rates with inflation at 3%, GDPnow, pricing TIPS in a world without CPI, market breadth still stinks, Trump really wishes Bessent would take Fed chair, and gold bulls not giving up hope yet
Q3 earnings are heating up. Through Monday, 114 companies have reported, and the year-over-year annualized quarterly growth rate stands at 8.89%.
Today's topics include tomorrow's FOMC meeting is all about potential QT announcement, questioning the certainty of future rate cuts, banks tap SRF for almost $8b again this morning, ADP says "let there be weekly data!", don't fear rate cuts amidst booming markets, stretched stock market valuations, and single-stock volatility
Two days ago, Chairman Powell warned, "signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening." These signs are becoming full-blown and regional bank stocks are plunging.
Today's topics include your daily update on the funding markets, JPM joins TD securities in calling for Fed T-bill purchases, looking beyond this year's rate cuts, the latest on the next Fed chair, comparing debt across countries, volatility, and data centers & AI financing
Year-over-year inflation came in below expectations. Given the lack of government data, the rate-cut status quo is likely to persist. Expect the Fed to lower rates 25 basis points next week and again in December unless the markets blow up and dictate a stronger response.
Today's topics include continuing the conversation about liquidity, earnings strength continues, gold & bond flows break records despite all-time equity highs, Canada-U.S. trade tensions, don't forget about China-U.S. trade issues either, AI's impact on the labor market so far, not a broad construction boom, and 24-5 trading is coming faster than you think