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The Case for Higher Rates From Here
October 10, 2022
As the Fed hikes and short rates increase, long rates should get dragged higher. Economic data would need to weaken meaningfully to change this outlook.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 10, 2022
Today's topics include the 10-year yield keeps streaking, Germany's bond market problem, is a recession coming?, the problem with PhDs, no pivot, the strong dollar, is the labor market cooling?, and financial market stress.
Newsclips
Cartoons
October 10, 2022
Newsclips
A Midterm Update
October 7, 2022
The latest data shows Democrats have a narrow polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is favored to stay in Democrat control, while the House is expected to flip to Republican control. The prediction market patterns suggest bettors are open to the idea that Republicans are being undercounted in the polls.
Newsclips
Employment in Pictures – Still No Reason for a Pivot
October 7, 2022
With the labor market looking strong, the Fed has enough cover to continue hiking. Hopes of a pivot may be misguided.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 7, 2022
Today's topics include the cost of energy, more Fed talk, UK bond market, and away we go...to cash, businesses struggle in the UK, the Fed effect, changing investment landscape, a new paradigm, looking at yields long term, chip demand could be a leading recession indicator, Lehman moment?, and derivative risk
Newsclips
Cartoons
October 7, 2022
Charts of the Week
Synchronized Central Bank Hikes
October 7, 2022
Developed market central banks are hiking in a synchronous fashion unlike any time in at least a couple decades.
Charts of the Week
The Post-Pandemic Bull Has Been Reversed
October 7, 2022
The S&P 500 Total Return Index, adjusted for inflation, sank below the last bull market peak of February 19, 2020.
Charts of the Week
Some Perspective on Margin Debt
October 7, 2022
Margin debt typically mirrors movements in the stock market, so it should come as no surprise it peaked in late 2021. When compared to the stock market's capitalization, however, margin debt remains near its lowest level in over 15 years.
Charts of the Week
Global Financial Market Capitalization
October 7, 2022
Globally, stocks' and bonds' combined market caps have declined over 15%.