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Midterm Update
September 30, 2022
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is favored to stay in Democrat control while the House is expected to flip to Republican control. The prediction market patterns suggest bettors are open to the idea that Republicans are being undercounted in the polls.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 30, 2022
Today's topics include dealing with the dollar, are the euro & pound still overvalued?, cash is king once again, the accounting behind pension shortfalls, macro hedge funds having decent year, the FTSE & the dollar, and the labor market
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Cartoons
September 30, 2022
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 29, 2022
Today's topics include the dollar: our currency - your problem, US labor market, the Fed must destroy wealth, inflation & deficits, historical attractiveness fails, the inflation problem, on the long end, the bond market inflection point, and the changing work week
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Cartoons
September 29, 2022
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Bond Market Trouble
September 28, 2022
The bond market suffers from high volatility, illiquidity, stress, and record losses. These problems are spilling over into the currency and stock markets.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 28, 2022
Today's topics include hike until something breaks, the BOE blinks before qt even starts, a volatility vortex in treasuries?, more treasury buyers, hosting Fedtalk, fed hikes are limiting PBOC's ability to ease, home prices begin to fall, consumer sentiment, and rumors Yellen may be replaced
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Cartoons
September 28, 2022
Newsclips
Buy-and-Hold Investors Keeping the Market Afloat
September 27, 2022
Equity markets have yet to show full panic even as macro headwinds grow. With flows and volatility showing no signs of capitulation, we are unlikely at a bottom until positioning shifts.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 27, 2022
Today's topics include interpreting bearish sentiment, UK officials go into prevent defense, going too far, recession odds, more on the British pound & gilts, Gundlach catching the falling bond market knife, cash is king, looking at UK stocks, remote work's effect on house prices, earnings crunch coming, Cathie Wood still sees chance of Fed pivot, and FTX expands crypto reach