Rising yields are taking their toll on the S&P 500, so much so that stocks are currently more volatile than Bitcoin. Without a Fed pivot in sight, stocks may have to have a sharp correction before yields stop moving higher.
Opinions among bettors and election models are diverging, with bettors thinking Republicans are in a better place than models suggest. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight dismissed bettors who "aren't that smart."
Earnings growth expectations for the next several quarters are declining amidst slowing growth and tighter margins. Q4 and 2023 earnings are expected to rebound slightly.
Today's topics include talkin' about the UK, the treasury floats the idea of bond buybacks, Bostic's trading violations, state stimulus programs aren't helping the fight against inflation, inflation's effect on the global economy, blame the UK's problems on clearinghouses, rents & inflation, measuring the bond market's carnage, put on your tin foil hat, and issues in the diesel market
The extreme pace of global central bank tightening is causing turmoil across all financial markets. Much of the focus is on the "liquidity hole" in the bond market, however equity markets are showing cracks.
Today's topics include the UK's fiscal U-Turn, the BoE's repo facility, more on yesterday's inflation data, treasury market problems, yesterday's big stock reversal, capital expenditures in the oil industry, and the blockchain's advantages
In the week ending October 12, the Fed paid out over $4 billion more in interest expenses than it received in interest income. As the Fed continues to hike rates, these weekly losses will only grow larger.
Fed officials have pushed back on the markets' hopes for a pivot. Fed funds traders appear to be getting the message.
If current methodologies and weights were applied historically to CPI, current growth rates would be much closer to the all-time highs set in 1980.
As the dollar continues its relentless rise in 2022, stocks in the S&P 500 most heavily dependent on foreign revenues have underperformed stocks focused on U.S. revenues.