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Midterm Update: Election Day is Here
November 8, 2022
On Election Day, the final set of polls, models, and bets are in. The Republicans look to sweep into the majority of the House and lean favorably to take the majority of the Senate. We soon find out how accurate these predictions are.
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What Economic Strength Indices Can Tell Us
November 8, 2022
The United States economy seems to be caught in a tug-of-war state in which investors are equally unsure whether recession can be avoided or if it is certain. We take a look at economic strength measures to understand what might be ahead.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 8, 2022
Today's topics include an alternative measure of Fed hawkishness, treasury volatility, Barkin on fed policy, more on the fallout from the UK's pension crisis, hedge funds searching for deals in corporate debt market, the BoJ's line in the sand, a look at ETF flows, and the tl;dr on FTX
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Cartoons
November 8, 2022
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Still No Long-Term Vision at the Fed
November 7, 2022
Lately, Fed officials' speeches have signaled what the FOMC will do at the next meeting. Missing is the speech explaining why an aggressive policy is needed. We believe Fed officials do not give this speech because they cannot agree on this case.
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Q3 Earnings Update: Next Quarter’s Expectations Falling Fast
November 7, 2022
Earnings growth expectations for the next several quarters are declining amidst slowing economic growth and tighter margins.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 7, 2022
Today's topics include the midterm election is tomorrow, all eyes on inflation this week, what is going on with zero-covid in China?, when a hedge doesn't provide downside protection, shadow banking, Dudley on the Fed's labor mandate, recession odds, currency hedges' effect on returns, central banks' appetite for gold, and a heavyweight battle in crypto land
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Cartoons
November 7, 2022
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Employment in Pictures – Another Month, Another Upside Beat
November 4, 2022
Payrolls beat estimates for the ninth time in the past ten months. The markets took this upside beat in stride, keeping an eye on upcoming inflation releases.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 4, 2022
Today's topics include Jim discusses the Fed's path, is China about to reopen?, zero-Covid's economic impact, the housing market, quantifying economic shocks, anticipating higher crude prices, on the European energy crisis, the next crisis, the BoE's strategy, the ECB has a tough fight ahead, growth by spending, and EV's rely on metals
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Cartoons
November 4, 2022
pic.twitter.com/ZcYuWdQIxW — . (@StockCats_2009) November 3, 2022