Today's topics include the BoJ steps in to defend its currency, the pace of rate hikes, Chinese economic growth falls short, predicting the change of empires is a dangerous game, the lag in monetary policy's effect on the economy, additional perspective on Treasury losses this year, watch out for more landmines ahead, money funds raising fees, Biden's plan to refill the SPR, and crypto regulation
Without any direct evidence of a worsening economy or a financial accident, such as plunging stock prices, both the long- and short-end of the yield curve can continue to shift higher. With the forward curve projecting a fed funds terminal rate of 5%, history suggests the 2-year yield should go above this level.
In late September the political betting markets started to move in the Republicans' favor. Markets can react faster to news and this appears to be the case again as increased Republican fortunes are now being reflected in the latest round of polls. The Republicans are solidly favored to take the majority of the House and their odds of taking the majority of the Senate are improving.
Today's topics include trouble in Treasuries, gilts' record-setting relief rally, global housing downturn, looking at credit to gauge risk, copper shortages, investments to beat inflation, college enrollment down, Japan's problems grow larger, and what's next in crypto
Direct bidders' notched their highest participation rate since 2014 in the most recent 10-year auction. This is taking place as the Fed and foreigners are reducing exposure to Treasuries.
Long-term commodity investors have profited from backwardation over the past year, adding to total returns to a degree rarely seen.
For the first time in years, bitcoin's realized volatility is actually lower than the S&P 500's.
As the "Everything Bubble" accelerated, real estate values rose at an extreme fast speed, pricing would-be buyers out of the market. As the pandemic consumed the globe, home values skyrocketed to a year-over year change over $60k. This has since rolled over.
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a deceleration in the crazy conditions of the last year.
How big are the Fed's holdings of bonds, notes, bills, TIPS, MBS, agencies, and FRNs in relation the outstanding market?