Newsclips
Updating Valuations to Begin 2023
January 18, 2023
Everyone's consensus call is a mild recession in 2023, and market participants seem eager to accept the consensus call. Given this view, where do valuations stand?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 18, 2023
Today's topics include the BoJ keeps current yield curve control limits, who is using the Fed's discount window?, Dudley on the debt ceiling, measuring real incomes, betting on the perfect soft landing, big bank earnings, more on the 60/40 portfolio, and problems at the ECB
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Cartoons
January 18, 2023
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Will Japan’s Inflation Rise Forcibly End Its Yield Curve Control Policy?
January 17, 2023
Japan's inflation rate is increasing for the first time in a generation, but salaries are not rising. Japanese government bond yields are moving higher, but struggling against the upper band of the Bank of Japan's yield curve control. If rates break through or yield curve control ends, the impact could be felt worldwide.
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Q4 Earnings Update: Waiting for Clarity on What’s Ahead
January 17, 2023
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect the economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how far earnings will fall. Looking at fourth quarter 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 17, 2023
Today's topics include where will inflation bottom?, pushing back on hopes for rate cuts in 2023, on the labor market, are earnings releases becoming more important than CPI's release?, fund managers underweight U.S. stocks, the pros & cons of the 60/40 portfolio, China's population shrank in 2022, don't count out globalization just yet, China grows an underwhelming 3%, and the rise of active ETFs
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Cartoons
January 17, 2023
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Has the Dynamic Changed?
January 13, 2023
Chairman Powell still worries a big rally in asset prices would lead to increased spending and higher inflation.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 13, 2023
Today's topics include the markets vs. the Fed, more on yesterday's inflation release, Timiraos blesses a 25 basis point hike at next meeting, signs of increased strain on the BoJ's yield curve control policy, a slowdown in leveraged debt, accurately measuring price to earnings, declining globalization, the positive economic effect of warm weather, where is the dollar heading?, and a different bull market
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Cartoons
January 13, 2023
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Inflation Watch – CPI’s First Deflationary Month in Over Two Years
January 12, 2023
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 12, 2023
Today's topics include Jim discusses macro climate at DoubleLine round table, where is inflation heading?, what will a US recession look like?, Euro confidence, China reopening, more on Japan, and what does 2023 hold for investors?