Japan's inflation rate is increasing for the first time in a generation, but salaries are not rising. Japanese government bond yields are moving higher, but struggling against the upper band of the Bank of Japan's yield curve control. If rates break through or yield curve control ends, the impact could be felt worldwide.
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect the economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how far earnings will fall. Looking at fourth quarter 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.
Today's topics include where will inflation bottom?, pushing back on hopes for rate cuts in 2023, on the labor market, are earnings releases becoming more important than CPI's release?, fund managers underweight U.S. stocks, the pros & cons of the 60/40 portfolio, China's population shrank in 2022, don't count out globalization just yet, China grows an underwhelming 3%, and the rise of active ETFs
Chairman Powell still worries a big rally in asset prices would lead to increased spending and higher inflation.
Today's topics include the markets vs. the Fed, more on yesterday's inflation release, Timiraos blesses a 25 basis point hike at next meeting, signs of increased strain on the BoJ's yield curve control policy, a slowdown in leveraged debt, accurately measuring price to earnings, declining globalization, the positive economic effect of warm weather, where is the dollar heading?, and a different bull market
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.
Today's topics include Jim discusses macro climate at DoubleLine round table, where is inflation heading?, what will a US recession look like?, Euro confidence, China reopening, more on Japan, and what does 2023 hold for investors?
Jim Bianco: Watching Bloomberg TV, and they are repeating the same mantra as everyone else. That is stating overwhelming consensus views with a tone in their voice like they are telling you something unique. Reality … inflation has peaked. That is a statement of fact. We don’t need another weak CPI number to convince everyone.… Continue reading Reality … inflation has peaked.
Today's topics include the market isn't buying what the Fed is selling, measuring 'supercore' inflation, betting on the Euro, a closer look at Japan's yield curve control, a credit boom, China's economic growth, used car prices finally heading lower, and operating earnings vs. NIPA profits