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July 20, 2010
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Who Really Offers The Safest Assets During A Flight To Safety?
July 20, 2010
The Financial Times – Investor reaction to market stress set to change Investor behaviour in the past three months has followed a typical pattern of risk reduction, with capital flows into what are perceived to be the safest assets – i.e. G3 government bonds. A relevant question, however, is whether this perception of safety is… Continue reading Who Really Offers The Safest Assets During A Flight To Safety?
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Earnings Estimates
July 20, 2010
Zero Hedge (blog) – McKinsey Study Confirms Sellside Analysts Are Conflicted, Slow, Biased And Generally Stupid A recently completed update of our work only reinforces this view—despite a series of rules and regulations, dating to the last decade, that were intended to improve the quality of the analysts’ long-term earnings forecasts, restore investor confidence in… Continue reading Earnings Estimates
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EU Stress Tests
July 20, 2010
The Wall Street Journal – New Doubts on EU Bank Stress Tests Greece’s economy is in tatters and its financial system is under pressure. But its banks appear poised to glide through Europe’s “stress tests.” A similar paradox is playing out across Europe. As regulators prepare to release stress-test results for 91 big European banks… Continue reading EU Stress Tests
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Arguing Against A Double Dip
July 20, 2010
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Double Dip? Seven Reasons Why Not It seems these days that half the headlines in the financial media fear a double-dip recession, as do half the conversations on Wall Street. There certainly are risks, not least in Europe’s financial difficulties. But still, there are reasons to question such widespread… Continue reading Arguing Against A Double Dip
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Are Keynesians Living In The Past?
July 20, 2010
The Financial Times – Today’s Keynesians have learnt nothing It was said of the Bourbons that they forgot nothing and learned nothing. The same could easily be said of some of today’s latter-day Keynesians. They cannot and never will forget the policy errors made in the US in the 1930s. But they appear to have… Continue reading Are Keynesians Living In The Past?
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Austerity vs. Stimulus
July 20, 2010
The Financial Times – It is far too soon to end expansion When the government relieves an excess demand for liquid money by printing up cash and swapping it out for government bonds, we call that expansionary monetary policy. When the government relieves an excess demand for bonds by printing up more Treasuries and selling… Continue reading Austerity vs. Stimulus
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Bernanke’s Testimony Tomorrow
July 20, 2010
The Financial Times – Lex: Bernanke When he last spoke to Congress in February, Mr Bernanke spoke of “nascent economic recovery”, in which consumer spending had “picked up” and there were “tentative signs of stabilisation in the labour market” – although he did note that there were signs that housing construction was flattening out. Since… Continue reading Bernanke’s Testimony Tomorrow
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Investors Love Gridlock
July 20, 2010
Bloomberg.com – Obama’s Bull Market Intact as Midterm Gridlock Signals Gains Growing dissatisfaction with U.S. President Barack Obama before this year’s elections is good news for stock investors, if history is any guide. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has surged 48 percent on average starting in the second year of each U.S. presidential term,… Continue reading Investors Love Gridlock
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July 20, 2010
Market Talk
Today’s Conversation
July 19, 2010
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A Worrisome Economic Sign – Has The Double Dip Started?
July 19, 2010
Comment The chart below shows the ECRI Leading Index (top panel) and its growth rate (bottom panel). Last month we detailed its construction. The ECRI Leading Index has been published every Friday for decades and offers a real-time prediction about the economy. Last Friday (July 16) its rate of change (bottom panel) was -9.8%. Note… Continue reading A Worrisome Economic Sign – Has The Double Dip Started?