The Wall Street Journal – Alan Blinder: The Fed Is Running Low on Ammo You may have noticed that the complexion of the U.S. economy has turned a bit sallow of late. The Federal Reserve definitely has. At its Aug. 10 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shifted attention away from its former concern—how… Continue reading To Ease Or Not To Ease, That Is The Question At Jackson Hole
<Click on chart for larger image> The Telegraph (UK) – It pays to riot in Europe Ireland must now pay more than Greece to borrow. Dublin has played by the book. It has taken pre-emptive steps to please the markets and the EU. It has done an IMF job without the IMF. Indeed, is has… Continue reading The Squeaky Wheel Gets The Grease In The EU
The Financial Times – Lex: Persistent Large Output Gaps The PLOG-non-dilemma may sound like some arcane tool of statistical analysis, like heteroskedasticity or the Shea partial R-square. But the question of what happens to consumer prices during periods of Persistent Large Output Gaps is crucial for monetary policy. Theory says that a big output gap… Continue reading A Study On Output Gaps
The Wall Street Journal – Not Cash to Burn, but Money in the Bank What isn’t signaling deflation these days? Perhaps this: Despite the weakening economy, the U.S. money supply has been growing again. The nation’s money stock, which includes currency plus bank deposits and households’ money-market fund holdings, grew to about $8.64 trillion as… Continue reading Money Supply
The Wall Street Journal – ‘Hindenburg’ Creator Sticks to Guns Jim Miekka has never worked on Wall Street and doesn’t hold any financial degrees. But he has suddenly developed a cult-like following among some investors. The 50-year-old newsletter writer is in big demand these days because of a technical market indicator he devised to predict… Continue reading The Hindenburg Omen, Again
The Financial Times – Magnetic numbers Investors could be forgiven for thinking 10,000 has magnetic properties. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went back below 10,000 again on Wednesday, the 121st day since March 1999 it has moved in or out of five digits. The mood has changed dramatically in the ensuing 11 years. When the… Continue reading Time To Put On Your Dow 10K Hats Again
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Historical Perspective On A Double Dip Recession Historical Perspective On A Double Dip Recession – 2 Is Brian Sack’s Prepayment Model Setting Monetary Policy? Is The Fed Worried About A “Mega Refi” Environment? Mortgage Prepayment Risk Still Near Historic Lows Correlation Among Different Asset Classes Observations… Continue reading Untitled
Comment Jim Bianco was on CNBC yesterday discussing the markets. To view the interview click on the picture above. To view any of our interviews click here.
<Click on chart for larger image> The New York Times – Housing Market Plunged in July, Fueling Anxiety Mortgage rates are the lowest in modern memory while affordability, because of price declines of 30 percent in many areas, is the highest in at least a decade. The government is allowing buyers to put only a… Continue reading Housing Is Still Dragging Down The Economy
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US stimulus boosted growth by up to 4.5% The report by the Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan agency that studies the budgetary impact of legislation for members of Congress, will come as a boost to congressional Democrats and Obama administration officials, who have been arguing… Continue reading Is The Stimulus Working?
Telegraph.co (UK) – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Hard-nosed Fed sends global markets reeling The global bond markets and the twin havens of the yen and Swiss franc have been flashing warning signs for weeks, tracking leading indicators as they topple like dominoes. They always sniff trouble first. Wall Street and Western bourses have until now brushed aside… Continue reading The Federal Reserve