The Big Picture (Blog) – Bond bubble: A Sterile Debate on Semantics Much ink has been spilt over the question of whether government bonds are in a bubble or not. The bond bubble believers love to cite stats along the lines that bonds are witnessing inflows at the same pace as equity funds did during… Continue reading More On A Bond Bubble
Bloomberg.com – Economy Avoids Recession Relapse as Data Can’t Get Much Worse The U.S. economy is so bad that the chance of avoiding a double dip back into recession may actually be pretty good. The sectors of the economy that traditionally drive it into recession are already so depressed it’s difficult to see them getting… Continue reading The Odds Of A Double Dip
Zero Hedge (Blog) – Presenting The Sovereign Default Equivalent Of The “Hindenburg Omen” While the merits of its conclusion are at best questionable, and at worst, completely worthless, the IMF study presented earlier provides one statistical curiosity vis-a-vis sovereign defaults. Specifically, in “Default in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely” the author Carlo Cottarelli… Continue reading Sovereign Debt
iMarketNews – Dal Fed Fisher:Don’t Grow Bal Sheet Til Fisc/Reg Pols Pro-Jobs Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said Wednesday that he would be reluctant to support an expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet unless and until federal fiscal and regulatory policies are made more friendly to economic growth and job creation. Fisher, who… Continue reading Opposing Views At The Federal Reserve
The Financial Times – These trades may cause side FX British leaders who worry their country is becoming insignificant can take some comfort from the foreign exchange markets. Sterling is the currency on one side of more than 6 per cent of forex trades (measured by value), according to Tuesday’s study from the Bank for… Continue reading Currency Trading
MarketBeat (WSJ Blog) – S&P 500 Soars In Best Sept Kick-Off Since 1998 September isn’t the best month for stocks, but investors didn’t care Wednesday, fueling the market’s biggest rally on a Sept. 1 since 1998. The Dow finished up 254 points, or 2.5%, to 10,269.47, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index jumped a… Continue reading As Goes The First Day, So Goes The Month?
The Wall Street Journal – Toxic Debt Returns to Fashion Private mortgage securities backed by risky Alt-A and adjustable-rate home loans—once the most noxious of the toxic waste in the financial system—are regaining favor with investors. These securities—also called nonagency bonds because they aren’t guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or… Continue reading Toxic Debt
The Wall Street Journal – SEC Probes Canceled Trades Regulators are scrutinizing what some in the stock market are calling “quote stuffing,” trading in which unusually large numbers of orders to buy or sell stocks are placed in a fraction of a second, only to be canceled almost immediately. The Securities and Exchange Commission has… Continue reading Quote Stuffing
The Wall Street Journal – Tax Cuts Weighed to Spur Economy The Obama administration is considering a range of new measures to boost economic growth, including tax cuts and a new nationwide infrastructure program, according to people familiar with the discussions. The president’s economic team has met frequently in recent days to list ways to… Continue reading Are Tax Cuts In Our Future?
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Historical Perspective On A Double Dip Recession ECRI – Slowdown or Double Dip? Economic Indicators That Lead Explaining Company Guidance Does Company Guidance LEAD The Economy? Sovereign CDS – Becoming An Issue Again? These Are Not Treasuries Private Sector Deleveraging, Public Sector Releveraging A… Continue reading Untitled